It's always difficult to know what Formula 1 teams are up to when testing, as fuel amounts, tires, performance modes, DRS usage or even time of day and wind direction can have a big impact on fastest lap times.
But that doesn't stop me from having a chance at what I think could happen next weekend when everything really starts with the Bahrain Grand Prix.
To do this, I took each driver's fastest time and converted that lap time into a percentage. The faster we call the reference point, the more each driver has an offset to this reference point – again in percent.
I did the same thing again for each team. To do this, I chose the fastest driver for each team – I follow the philosophy that if one driver can set a lap time, the other should be able to do the same.
To account for what we know, the times have been changed to what they would be if each driver had used the medium C3 compound for their fastest lap.
My offset for the calculation is:
C3 from C4 +0.5 s, C3 from C5 +0.8 s
C3 from C2 -0.5 s, C3 from C1 -1.0 s
The logic behind this offset is that the softer tires are difficult to sustain for a full lap, but the harder tires don't have this problem, they are just a little slower overall.
I think this is where we stand. This doesn't take fuel into account, as I would only assume, but I will note in each team's summary what I think the amount of fuel might have been.
This will be done in the overall order of teams' performance, with each team's fastest driver time used to determine this order. The rider's performance position is indicated next to each rider.
I've made it clear that I think the order of the adjusted test times is a little different from where the teams will actually be when it comes down to it next weekend.
1 – Ferrari
1:30.421 minutes (auto date)
1 – Carlos Sainz 1:30.421 minutes (driver data)
4 – Charles Leclerc 1:30.832 minutes (+0.457%)
From day one the car seemed stable, there were no major defects and both drivers were always on top in one way or another.
The long runs went reasonably well and during this time he seemed to make good use of the hard tires.
Ferrari finished last year strongly and seems to have carried this momentum into the new season. It needs to ensure that it cleans up some of its strategy mistakes that have let it down in the past.
Do I think it's really ahead of Red Bull? No, but I think it will be close.
Ferrari was clearly trying to set a time rather than hide its pace with lots of fuel, but I don't think it was running on the trail of an oily rag in terms of fuel – probably closer to 25kg.
That's a good six tenths of a second in qualifying trim.
2 – Red Bull
1,30,679 minutes (+0.285%)
2 – Sergio Perez 1:30.679 seconds (+0.287%)
3 – Max Verstappen 1:30.755 minutes (+0.371%)
At first everyone thought that Red Bull would make the rest of the grid look like Formula 2 cars, but as time went on the other teams got better and Red Bull didn't seem to be making quite as much progress.
Initially the car had quite a bit of understeer, but this was quickly sorted out and everything ran as normal, although it could have been an underlying problem just waiting to rear its ugly head.
However, I think Red Bull will be back where it was last year, but the gap will narrow a little. I'm pretty sure it's never used less than 30kg of fuel, so there's more to come, but you've got to keep an eye on the rearview mirror.
3 – Mercedes
1,30,868 minutes (+0.497%)
5 – George Russell 1:30.868 minutes (+0.497%)
7 – Lewis Hamilton 1:31.066 minutes (+0.717%)
This year's car is very different from last year's version, both mechanically and aerodynamically.
Even the engineers say it's a whole new learning curve and the test showed Mercedes is still learning.
Things looked good on the track: pretty sharp when turning in and sometimes a little nervous when accelerating, but nothing crazy.
I don't think Mercedes has a Red Bull or Ferrari beater yet, but I think what it has now will respond better to developments.
Overall I think it's the third best result at the moment, but with McLaren it will be close.
4 – McLaren
1:31.030 seconds (+0.677%)
6 – Oscar Piastri 1:31.030 seconds (+0.677%)
10 – Lando Norris 1:31.256 seconds (+0.929%)
Again, the car looks stable and there are no major problems. Both drivers appeared to be heading in the same direction; In fact, it was almost impossible to guess which driver was in the car on track, which is always a good sign of the direction of development.
McLaren is confident that it has a good and positive development direction and that what it currently has is good enough to be a contender for podium places.
I would call it a third or fourth best runner-up with Mercedes and there are two drivers who can be there to block out others.
5 – Clean
1m31.147s (+0.807%)
8 Zhou Guanyu 1:31.147 seconds (+0.807%)
17 Valtteri Bottas 1:32.227 minutes (+2.008%)
On the track the car seemed to lack a bit of grip – nothing desperate, but it just seemed to use more road than some of the others.
After the first morning, Sauber seemed to be on top of things and even introduced a new subfloor on the second day.
It's hard to say how much better it was from late to early the next day as the route can change here (usually it takes about an hour to get used to it) so I'm not sure if I Das would have made a change like overnight.
I'm pretty sure Zhou Guanyu was pretty low on fuel when he set his fast lap time at the end of the final day. It all came out of the blue, so that's usually an indication to drive a lighter car.
I think Sauber will probably finish in the middle: sixth best on a good day and eighth best on a bad day.
6 – Aston Martin
1m31.159s (+0.821%)
9 – Fernando Alonso 1:31.159 seconds (+0.821%)
15 – Lance Stroll 1:32.029 seconds (+1.788%)
It's surprising to see Aston Martin here again. On track the car was one of the most stable and consistent, so I can only attribute it to fuel consumption and a team simply wanting to complete the testing program without doing any glorious runs.
I expect at least one of his riders to be reasonably comfortable in the top 10, but finishing in the top eight might just be a small boost.
7 – RB
1:31.275 seconds (+0.950%)
11 – Yuki Tsunoda 1:31.275 seconds (+0.950%)
14 – Daniel Ricciardo 1:31.861 minutes (+1.601%)
Last year, Yuki Tsunoda finished the test sixth, but in qualifying for the first race weekend he finished 14th. He and Daniel Ricciardo will be hoping there won't be another slump in 2024 – both have the potential to do better this year and Bahrain qualifying will be their chance to prove it.
RB has a better car than last year, so I'm pretty sure it will prevail at the top of the midfield, but from this group there will still be a small gap to what I would consider the top five would teams.
8 – Williams
1m31.484s (+1.182%)
12 – Alex Albon 1:31.484 seconds (+1.182%)
20 – Logan Sargeant 1:33.078 seconds (+2.955%)
I don't think this is very out of place for Williams. We all know that Alex Albon is very good at getting a lap out of the car in qualifying, but he still needs the car to really perform and I see no reason to think that Williams compared to last has made great progress this year.
It was also one of the few teams that suffered from some reliability issues, so that needs to be addressed. Because in order to reach the finish line first, you first have to finish.
9 – Haas
1m31.686s (+1.407%)
13 – Nico Hülkenberg 1:31.686 seconds (+1.407%)
19 – Kevin Magnussen 1:33.053 minutes (2.927%)
Very similar to Williams in that there is nothing inspiring about the car. On the track it looks stable and consistent, just slow.
Haas focused on his tire wear issues and spent most of the test driving longer stints. We know that Nico Hulkenberg – like Albon – can get a lap out of a car and that's exactly what he did here at the end of the day.
But getting one of its drivers into Q3 regularly under normal circumstances this year might just be too much for Haas.
10 – Alpine
1:32.061 minutes (+1.824%)
16 – Esteban Ocon 1:32.061 minutes (+1.824%)
18 – Pierre Gasly 1:32.805 seconds (+2.651%)
If there was one car in this test that I thought looked inconsistent and difficult to drive, it would be this one. Every time the driver approached a corner, it seemed to be a new experience.
When I looked at the track, at first I had the impression that the driver was just trying too hard and making mistakes, but then they both did exactly the same thing and had the same problems.
What did we learn?
Just to illustrate: The fastest test time in 2023 was set by Sergio Perez with 1:30.305 minutes, pole went to Max Verstappen with 1:29.708 minutes. This was on the same C3 tire, so a reasonable comparison. But it shows that there needs to be more time if the year-long development time and cost of a new car over the winter is to be justified.
The car percentage range for the last six races of 2023 was also 0.936%, and for drivers it was 1.835%. From what we have seen so far for 2024, it is now 1.824% for the car and 2.955% for the driver, so the gap has widened significantly. Yes, this is just from a test and we'll know more about it next weekend, but I would have hoped it would be over.
I'm pretty sure we'll see Red Bull at the top, closely followed by Ferrari, who will occasionally be joined by Mercedes and McLaren, followed by Aston Martin, hot on their heels and then a little behind.
As for the others, under normal circumstances it looks like it will be very close. Alpine should be next but need to figure out why the car looked so inconsistent and keep an eye on RB. Then Sauber, Williams and Haas should follow – but it will be tight in the second half and everything depends on who does everything right that day.
Let's see what next weekend brings. Qualifying will be the first time we know that the cars will have a similar fuel load, new tires, a maximum power mode and that the driver will be given the authority to wring his neck.
What is certain is that there will be someone in pole position and someone at the back, and we won't know who is which until next Friday evening. (Yes, you have to remember that it's a Saturday race, so it all starts on Thursday.)
It's been a long winter, so let's go.
