This time, Europeans are considering “radical options” to persuade Viktor Orban to change, according to the Elysée Palace. Two days before a meeting of European leaders scheduled for Thursday February 1 in Brussels, the Hungarian prime minister continues to reject aid to Ukraine worth 50 billion euros over four years under the Community budget Visibility and predictability in Kiev.
On December 14, 2023, during their last summit, Viktor Orban finally left the room, leaving his counterparts to decide to begin negotiations on Kyiv's accession to the European Union (EU). The day before, the Commission had also released 10 billion euros in funds to Hungary, which had been blocked in Budapest for violating the rule of law.
With American support across the Atlantic blocked in Congress and the war deadlocked, Ukraine has much at stake. It is also up to the Europeans, who are anxious to maintain their unity vis-à-vis Moscow. A 26 solution would be entirely possible, but would require ratification by all affected national parliaments. “Between the RN [Rassemblement national] and LFI [La France insoumise], what would the National Assembly vote for? » in France, asks a European diplomat.
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“Dangerous bet”
In order to agree to help for Kiev, Viktor Orban demands that the file be examined again at regular intervals over the planned four years and that objections be raised if necessary. “To justify this request, Budapest even told us that 50 billion might not be enough and that we should give ourselves the opportunity to revise the framework upwards!” chokes a European diplomat. Before we continue: “Orban wants to be able to change his mind after the European elections” if the Russophile right-winger achieves a good result. The Europeans, for their part, refuse to offer blackmail-happy Hungary other options for exercising its right of veto.
If there is no agreement on February 1st just because of Budapest, “that would be a risk for the EU and for Ukraine.” But also for Hungary, which would make the decision to leave the game even more serious,” warns Elysee. “Hungary can rely on Trump and Putin. But it is a dangerous bet,” adds a European diplomat.
“It is no coincidence that the EU member state that most violates our common values (…) is also the member state that is still outside the EU consensus on the issue of aid to Ukraine,” denounced on Monday, January 29th, on The German State Secretary for European Affairs, Anna Lührmann, calls on the EU to “harden” its reactions.
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