On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for “Russia to immediately end the use of force against Ukraine.” In more detail, 141 countries approved it, only 5 opposed and 35 abstained. Among the latter, we logically find China, Cuba or even Kazakhstan, but also 17 African countries – to which must be added Eritrea, which is one of the five nations that voted against. Therefore, almost half of the votes against the resolution come from this continent, proof of the influence that Russia is still exerting on it.
Understanding it requires going back in time. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union joined Africa, massively supporting anti-colonial and independence movements to reduce Western control of the continent. Carol Grimo Potter, a professor of geopolitics on Russian influence at the University of Montpellier, cited in particular support for Algeria, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Egypt through economic, military or diplomatic aid. Moscow has gone so far as to build a university specifically for African students to train future political decision-makers on the continent.
Growth market
This cooperation ended in the late 1980s, at the end of the Soviet Union, and remained a dead letter throughout the next decade, with Russia already struggling to recover before expanding. But since the new millennium, Africa has been attracted to greed again. “In the early 2000s, China made no secret of its intention to invest heavily there. The continent is experiencing strong growth. Vladimir Putin traveled to the site for the first time in 2005 and multiplied visits to the continent. Africa has been identified as a major strategic issue for Russia, “said Roland Marshall, a research associate at Science Po and a specialist in African great power policies.
The continent is a thriving economic market, confirms Carol Grimo Potter, taking the example of wheat: Russia is the world’s leading producer and exporter, selling 37% of its exports to Africans. “In the event of an economic conflict with the European Union or the United States, Africa remains a stable market that does not impose sanctions or boycotts,” the expert added.
Economic and military influence
A market that is doubly easy to use. On the one hand, since the Soviet Union has already invested in it in the past, Russia only needs to revive relations, Roland Marshall said in the first place. In addition, “Russia is an expert in civilian nuclear energy and mining, two key skills for Africa. And, of course, there is the military sector. “Russian weapons are strong, easy to use and cheap, three highly valued qualities,” said the researcher.
Because Russian influence in Africa is also military. “Moscow is particularly supportive of authoritarian regimes without many allies on the international stage,” said Carol Grimo Potter. Cooperation with “touchy” regimes, as the expert calls them, such as Sudan, Libya, Mali or the Central African Republic, which is establishing its presence – Russia, for example, has set up a military base in Sudan – in addition to providing loyal allies due to lack of alternatives.
The diplomatic aspect, the other side of Moscow
This is because Moscow is seeking to expand its diplomatic influence in Africa. In 2019, the first Russia-Africa summit was organized, bringing together Vladimir Putin and most African heads of state. In addition to a trade and military alliance, Russia has a strong argument: “Moscow is making its honey in Africa of anti-Western discourse that inevitably resonates with the angry population after centuries of colonialism and decades of failed postcolonialism,” Roland Marshall said.
That is why the UN vote on Wednesday shows Moscow’s key advantage of this diplomatic rapprochement: winning favorable votes, or at least unfavorable ones. Of the 193 UN member states, 54 are African, the most represented continent with more than a quarter of the vote. “This is a crucial bet for Russia against the votes of Western countries, which are generally unfavorable. “African countries are not in line with the European Union or the United States and are applying their own vote,” said Roland Marshall.
Another country is also well aware of these issues and is trying to expand its sphere of influence there with the same or almost the same arguments: China. “For now, the two giants are able to avoid a collision, avoiding tension,” said Carol Grimo Potter. But until when?