O The inflation rate in Germany in September reached the lowest level since the start of the Russian war of aggression fell against Ukraine. As the Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday, consumer prices rose in September compared to the same month last year 4.5 percent for. In Austria the rate was in August 7.5 percent.
Eliminate the fuel discount and the 9 euro ticket
The reason for the significant decline in the inflation rate next month is a call statistical basis effect: The federal government had the period from June to August 2022 Discount on fuel and 9 euro ticket introduced to ease the burden on consumers.
This reduced level is now out of the previous year’s comparison, meaning that the strong Decrease in the inflation rate explained. “The distorting effects of the 2022 aid package have therefore disappeared from the numbers,” said Landesbahn Baden-Würtenberg economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch.
Food is the biggest price driver
Biggest price factor food left, which cost 7.5% more than in September 2022. Energy only increased 1.0% after the fuel discount was eliminated. Services cost 4.0 percent more – the elimination of the 9 euro ticket contributed to this.
The so-called underlying inflation rate, which excludes sharply fluctuating food and energy prices, also fell: vfrom 5.5 to 4.6 percent.
“Inflation is likely to continue to decline”
According to the Bundesbank, inflation is likely to “continue to decrease throughout the year“. Significant declines in upstream levels – such as import, producer and wholesale prices – are expected to be gradually passed on to consumers. “However, in a context of robust wage growth, the rate of inflation is expected to continue over the medium term well over two percent the Bundesbank expects in its current monthly report.
In their joint diagnosis for the federal government, the main institutes assume that the inflation rate in the next year to 2.6 percent will fall from an average of 6.1 percent next year. It should then be in 2025 by 1.9 percent.
Too soon for everything to be clear
“However it is It’s too early for everything to be fine“, it gave Commerzbank Chief Economist Jörg Krämer consider. “Faster wage growth will fuel inflation in labor-intensive services.”
To this would be added deglobalization, decarbonization and unfavorable demographics. On average, inflation rates in the coming years are expected to be well above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) two percent target.