When President Joe Biden told the world from Warsaw on March 26 that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin “cannot stay in power,” the White House was quick to downplay the US leader’s remarks, noting that Biden’s Statements are not a call for “regime change”. In Moscow.
But Biden then told reporters he was “not going back” and that his words were an expression of his “moral outrage” at the atrocities he believed a man he branded a “war criminal” for, throughout the ongoing war responsible was Ukraine.
The president reinforced those allegations Monday after images surfaced that allegedly showed massacres being committed by withdrawing Russian troops in the Ukrainian cities of Bucha and Trostyanets. Russia denies committing atrocities.
“You may recall that I was criticized for calling Putin a war criminal,” Biden told reporters on the White House lawn. “You saw what happened in Bucha… he’s a war criminal.”
“But we need to collect the information,” he added, “we need to keep providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs to continue the fight and we need to get all the details so that this can be a real…war process.” “
When asked if Putin himself had to answer for such allegations, Biden said “he should be held accountable”.
And while the Biden administration insists there has been no fundamental change in Washington’s policy, a concerted effort to gather evidence of alleged Russian misconduct in the conflict and hold officials, including Putin himself, accountable is the first time for more than three decades of Russia’s post-Soviet history and more than two decades of Putin’s own rule, the US has openly sought to impose costs on the Kremlin that could challenge the legitimacy of its leadership.
The implications of such a historical shift are uncertain, although fraught with risks that could threaten relations between two nations that together possess about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Putin has also long portrayed undesirable US policies towards his country as an attempt to undermine his power and Russia’s own position on the world stage.
“Outrage” expressed by the Biden administration over recent reports of mass killings of civilians in Bucha and Trostyanets, and the “human catastrophe” surrounding the Russian siege of Mariupol, “are understandable – indeed, appropriate.”
“Furthermore, anger will grow because more horrific incidents are likely to come to light,” he added. “However, two consequences should be noted when the President of the United States calls for regime change in Russia – even without using that term – and Putin’s trial as a war criminal.”
Menon said the first such consequence is that “Biden will have difficulty declining calls for additional military steps, such as a no-fly zone, because those calling for them will ask why he is holding back when he himself has recognized and condemned these atrocities.” and said that Putin should no longer be in power and should indeed be tried for war crimes.”
“Even deeper US military involvement is not without risks,” Menon said. “[It’s] important to consider if the other side happens to be the world’s other nuclear superpower.”
Menon said the second type of fallout is the “tension between Russia’s blatant denunciation and the United States’ ability to facilitate a diplomatic settlement to the war — on terms that are, of course, acceptable to Ukraine — whenever that time comes.”
“US involvement may prove important, but Moscow may resist,” Menon added. “Can you imagine a phone call between Biden and Putin, let alone a face-to-face meeting?”
A combination of created images shows US President Joe Biden during a signing ceremony at the White House in Washington, DC on November 18, 2021 and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a United Russia party congress in Moscow on December 4, 2021. MANDEL NGAN/ MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty Images
Officials in Moscow have blamed the precipitous downturn in relations between the two as Washington’s fault.
After Biden’s speech in Poland, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters last Tuesday that Putin’s government is still interested in conducting diplomacy with the US and that “even in the most controversial of times, we have reiterated our desire to building just relations with Washington”.
“If their election is what we see and which obviously leads to the destruction of bilateral relations, then they will be responsible for that,” Zakharova said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters shortly after Biden’s remarks that Putin’s fate “is not for Biden to decide” since “the Russian president is elected by the Russians.”
China, the United States’ biggest rival and Russia’s leading strategic partner, also took note of Biden’s comments.
In a March 28 tweet, Chinese Ambassador to Malta Yu Dunhai said it was “reasonable to believe” that Biden’s call for Putin to cede power was “not just a slip of the tongue.” Rather, the envoy said: “It reveals the real intentions of the US regarding the Ukraine war, which is to kill three birds with one stone: – regime change – a severely weakened Russia – a more dependent Europe.”
The US has long sought to use force to overthrow unfavorable world leaders, and even when that fails, Washington has resorted to a wide arsenal of economic and diplomatic measures to keep the pressure on enemies.
Putin became one of just eight heads of state to be blacklisted by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control in February, days after he declared war on the US and NATO after failed negotiations with the US and NATO over their military presence in Eastern Europe and Kiev’s bid to end the war Ukraine had started to join the alliance.
Of that short list, only four others — President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un of North Korea, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela — were actually hit first by sanctions, as they led their respective nations .
The US’s nuclear-armed relationship with North Korea has also been complex, particularly after then-President Donald Trump took the unprecedented step of meeting Kim as part of a failed denuclearization-for-peace process. But the Biden administration has repeatedly made it clear that it does not see Lukashenko, Assad or Maduro as legitimate leaders and has actively backed those who wanted to overthrow them.
All four of the sanctioned leaders are still in power.
Moscow’s own massive stockpile of nuclear weapons, its internal stability and its status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council severely limit the US’ ability to challenge Putin’s rule, even as the State Department has stepped up criticism of Putin’s imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Russia’s power and influence, even in the face of the US-European Union-led coalition of sanctions against the country, also makes it unlikely that Putin or his top officials will actually be prosecuted in forums such as the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands.
“Aside from the question of whether those responsible for the Russian atrocities in Ukraine should be held accountable – and in the abstract they should be – the likelihood that Putin or anyone in his inner circle will be tried by the ICC, from its founding treaty that Russia withdrew in 2016, or any other international tribunal, is a long way off at best,” Menon said.
The White House has also deflected such measures against U.S. and allied citizens, with the Trump administration going so far as to impose sanctions on ICC officials in response to an attempt to investigate possible war crimes committed by U.S. troops in Afghanistan were committed.
The Biden administration lifted those sanctions last year but has firmly opposed any effort by the ICC to probe Israel for possible violations of international law committed against Palestinians in their longstanding conflict.
And contrary to the changing tides of the US political system, Putin is expected to remain in power for some time, with a change in law allowing him to run for another set of consecutive four-year terms in 2024, a year in which Biden himself may have one As the country faces a difficult presidential election campaign, a Russian state media outlet has publicly expressed hopes of bringing Trump back to power.
Even with the heightened sanctions his war in Ukraine has brought his country, recent polls by the independent, Moscow-based Levada Center have reported a significant surge in domestic support for Putin, taking his approval rating to 83%.
No matter how deep the rift between Washington and Moscow grows, the two sides appear to have to negotiate with each other for the foreseeable future.
“Will the demands for such trials worsen US-Russia relations?” Menon asked rhetorically. “Yes,” he said.
“Will you continue anyway?” he added. “Yes.”
The White House did not immediately respond to Newsweek’s request for comment.
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