This story is an excerpt from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.
SEATTLE — While Julio Rodríguez’s start to 2023 was an incident, Scott Servais said it could be a good thing in his overall player development plan.
“He’s going to play this game for another 15 to 20 years, he’s going to have problems again,” the Mariners manager said. “I hate telling people this, but it’s going to happen. And when that’s the case, you’re wondering, “Okay, how did I get out of there last time?” Did I push too much too soon? Did I panic a little sooner?’
“It will pay off going forward, but I love him in that way, when he smokes two or three puffs every day and hits the ball out of the stadium. It is fun.”
In fact, Rodríguez has wielded one of MLB’s hottest bats. He now has 16 of 34 on the homestand, with three homers, seven runs scored and 10 RBIs. According to FanGraphs, he was worth more wins than his substitute in that stretch (0.9) than in the first seven weeks combined (0.7).
The first 44 games: .204/.280/.376 (.656 OPS), 0.7 WAR, 94 WRC+, 40.4% Hard Hit Rate
This Homestand (8 games): .471/.486/.853 (1,339 OPS), 0.9 WAR, 264 WRC+, 66.7% Hard Hit Rate
“I feel like going through tough times is fun,” Rodríguez told reporters. “It’s fun to be at the top. And it was definitely a lot of work with the people who are close to me. And I’m excited to see where things are going.”
When asked what was behind his about-face, Rodríguez put his finger to his lips and good-naturedly preferred not to reveal anything. But a combination of swing decisions, launching pull-side balls in the air, and resorting to his rare back-spin power on the countercourt are among the main causes.
Rodríguez struck 28.9% of the time before moving down the order. This was the 24th highest rate among 173 qualified batsmen and up from 25.9% last year. It was more the how than the what that proved alarming once the formula broke against him: fastballs on his hands early in the count that he could do virtually no damage with, and off-speed/break pitches from the zone , when falling behind, leading to non-competitive chases.
Rodríguez’s K-Rate is 23.8% since he went down the order. There are still chases in his game, but there probably always will be. It’s the way he turns that weakness into a strength when the sequence calls for it — like hitting a pitcher’s throw — that makes it a much more effective trait.
Rodríguez lands 58.8% of his pull sides, which is above the league average of 54.9% for righties and a correlation of just four hits. He improved slightly here, but the bigger benefit was the massive increase in hit rate (anything 95mph or more) and correlation with damage.
A full 18 of his 27 batted balls on that homestand were hit hard, the most in MLB since last Monday, and he’s hit 12 of them, including all three homers.
Behind the scenes, a front office official described that Rodríguez swings north and south rather than east and west, which may have helped him “get into baseball better.”
“You can’t go and say, ‘Okay, I’m going to try and hit this ball in the air,'” Servais said. “Often it’s related to your swing path and what’s going on there.”
Half of Rodríguez’s 16 goals in that homestand came from inside the field, perhaps the clearest sign he’s on the right track. A whopping 81 of his 145 goals last year, more than half, went in that direction.
“I feel like that’s where my strengths lie,” Rodríguez said. “I feel like I’m really good there. I like being able to play the ball the other way and I feel like that’s what I’m doing: I just stick to my strengths, play my cards and try not to overdo it. I just take what the game gives me.”
With a more than 200-point increase in on-base percentage, that homestand has also resulted in Rodríguez playing at elite speed and baserunning more often. Take, for example, his impressive slide between the catcher’s legs on a sacrifice stand on Saturday, a play he was initially ruled out before Servais was challenged.
“He knows that our team is just much better when he gets going,” said Servais. “He brings a whole different dynamic to our offense when he’s on the bases and doing everything he can.”