UPDATE ON THE SITUATION – The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself claimed the capture of Krynky on the occupied bank of the Dnieper in southern Ukraine.
With the conflict soon entering its third year, there is no compromise in sight. Ukraine is in great difficulty as the mobilization of new soldiers to replace those who have been fighting for a long time is a burning issue… Le Figaro explains the situation in the context of the conflict.
The Ukrainian army denied having lost control of its Krynky bridgehead
The Ukrainian army denied on Wednesday that it had lost control of its Krynky bridgehead on the occupied bank of the Dnieper in southern Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin himself had also claimed its capture the day before. “The military and political leaders of the aggressor country announced the capture of the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper. We officially say that this information is false,” the Southern Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on social networks. “The defense forces of southern Ukraine continue to hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the enemy,” he added.
The day before, Putin and his Defense Minister Sergueï Chougou had claimed to have regained control of the village of Krynky, where the Ukrainian army managed to establish positions in the summer of 2023 in difficult conditions, in particular due to the presence of swamps and swamps crossing the River under attack. The Russians heavily bombed the area and Krynky was completely destroyed, according to images regularly broadcast by the forces of both camps. This bridgehead was one of the few successes of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive, but never allowed Kiev forces to advance south.
With Russia in a position of strength, no compromise is in sight
After two years of total war, there is no sign of compromise between Ukraine, which is in deep trouble, and a Russia that has been re-energized by the erosion of Western support for Kiev and the hypothesis of Trump's return to the White House. Diplomats and analysts, whether in Moscow or on the side of Kiev and its supporters, agree on at least one point: 2024 will be another year of war. And in the current state of the conflict, “there is nothing for the belligerents to negotiate on,” except a “surrender” of one or the other, summarizes Fyodor Loukyanov, director of the Council on Foreign Policy and Defense, a think tank close to the Kremlin. It is unthinkable for Kiev to negotiate until Russian troops have withdrawn from the areas they occupied. For his part, Vladimir Putin, who was assured of his reappointment to a new Kremlin term in March elections, reiterates that Russia's defeat is “impossible” and is playing for time by observing weakening Western support for Kiev.
In terms of resources, the balance is in favor of Russia, which, according to Ukrainian sources, can send 30,000 new soldiers to the front every month and whose economy will have completely entered war mode in 2023. On the other side, Ukraine, which began the 2014 war in Donbass and with Russia's annexation of Crimea, is exhausted and is difficult to mobilize. After two years of unshakable national unity, political-military differences in Kiev are deepening with the departure of the very popular army chief Valery Zalouzhny.
“Russia is starting to believe it can win,” said Polish analyst Marek Mendiszak of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw. “This feeling of victory is reinforced by the decline in Western military support and the political context” in the United States as Donald Trump potentially returns in the November presidential election. A return of Donald Trump to the White House worries Ukrainians and Europeans. The former US president, who assured that if re-elected he would be able to end the conflict “in 24 hours,” could also cut aid to Ukraine. Washington, which has been Kiev's main support and has released more than 110 billion since 2022, has been failing for months to vote for new funds for Ukraine, especially due to pressure from Donald Trump on his troops, who have the majority in the House of Representatives have. And Europe, which has provided 28 billion euros in military aid, is struggling to keep its promises and will not be able to make up for American failure in the short term anyway.
In Ukraine, recruiting new recruits to the front is difficult
Mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new soldiers to replace those who have long been fighting is a burning – and politically dangerous – issue in Ukraine, where the conflict is about to enter its third year. Serguiï Ogorodnyk, 39, who commands an Air Force company, explains: “People need a break, not only to recover and continue fighting, but also to rebuild their civilian life.” The soldier reiterates that feeling that “injustice” towards those who had not yet been called up for combat was pervasive among the troops stationed on the Forehead.
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To remedy the situation, Parliament passed a controversial bill to facilitate registration in its first reading at the beginning of February, but it also sparked a lively debate. And the prolongation of the war, the stagnation of the front after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 have undermined the enthusiasm of future soldiers. According to Anton Grouchetsky from the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev, uncertainty about the sustainability of Western support for Ukraine also has an impact. “Ukrainians were willing to die on the battlefield if they felt strongly supported. When they know they won’t have weapons to fight, it’s demotivating,” he notes. A series of corruption scandals and the army's reputation as a bureaucratic hell are also discouraging those who hesitate.
Some agencies are trying to make recruiting easier, such as Lobby X, which publishes the list of military positions on a website with lots of explanations. But modernizing the system “is a very big challenge,” acknowledges CEO Vladyslav Greziev. He says his website has received more than 67,000 applications. “We help people take the leap into the armed forces because they have more clarity and control over their future,” he says.
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