For Paul Lendvai, the year 2024 brings two things in particular: his 20th book, which will be published on January 29th, and his 95th birthday, which he will celebrate on August 24th. He doesn't want to get involved in speculation about what the new year might bring to the world. “I am very careful with prophecies. My whole life is a warning that one cannot know what the future will bring. The impossible can become possible at any moment,” he says in an interview with APA.
He cites the overthrow of the Soviet government and party leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 and the reunification of Germany in 1990 as global political examples. Both had not been predicted by recognized experts until recently. “I admire futurologists and despise them at the same time.” Because he prefers to analyze rather than speculate, Paul Lendvai did not become a futurologist, but rather a journalist – one of Austria's most prominent. In the attic room where he lives with his wife Zsóka, near the Volksoper, his numerous books are at hand on the shelf, including translations into Japanese and English, and some of his awards are displayed on a sideboard. “The certificates are all hanging in the office”, explains the tireless publicist, who was born in Budapest, has lived in Vienna since 1957 and explained the world situation to more than one generation of ORF viewers as a commentator. The founding of the magazine “Europäische Rundschau” and more than a quarter of a century of work as a correspondent for the “Financial Times” are among other highlights of an impressive professional life.
Whether in Russia, Germany, Hungary or the Balkans – Paul Lendvai not only knows politics, but also politicians from personal experience. He also makes this clear in his new book, which he called “On Hypocrisy” because he wants to show “in particular the role of hypocrisy, double standards, human and political duplicity and hypocrisy” in politics. “Deceptions and Self-Deceptions in Politics” is the subtitle of the book, in which he describes, among other things, how Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán understood how to enlist Western politicians or calm them down safely until it was too late. You can see where this leads in Christopher Clark's book “The Sleepwalkers,” about the prehistory of World War I, says Lendvai.
Back to the future: “By far, the most important event of 2024 will be the presidential elections in the USA”, says the journalist, who considers it “almost unbelievable” that former President Donald Trump is likely to run again. He comments with a smile on his guest's observation that old Joe Biden's re-election is probably not proof of a vital democracy: “What are you saying? He's 14 years younger than me…”
He finds the rise of right-wing and right-wing populists in Austria worrying. “The strength and weakness of our democracy is that it also gives complete freedom to those who want to rebuild this democracy.” The media does “very little to unmask” the hypocrites, but a lot to satisfy the vanity of politicians: “I know of no other country in which ministers were portrayed in government advertisements as frequently as in Austria during the Kurz-Strache government. “
The dean of quality journalism complains that the sustainability of knowledge, once obtained, is low. “People's short memory is one of the greatest dangers of democracy. Social networks are tools for artificial forgetting. The only way to combat this is through education.” But many people today couldn't or didn't want to read anymore. “Many members of the political elite no longer read, but let people read. There are even many journalists who only read their own articles – namely to see if anything has changed”, smiles the 94-year-old man and reads his favorite quote from the guest . philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche: “It is not when it is dangerous to tell the truth that one is least likely to find representatives, but when it is boring.”
He accepted a truth that is unpleasant to him: “Maybe the EU was enlarged too quickly. I also fought for enlargement, but today I believe it was too fast and too comprehensive.” The fact that the European Union has fallen into a double mill created by Hungary and Poland in recent years is “a failure of conception on the part of the EU”, says Lendvai. “An authoritarian regime was not expected to emerge in the EU – and not just one.” After all, the de-election of the national-conservative PiS in Poland was “one of the biggest things of the last year and an incredible weakening of Orbán’s position”. The native Hungarian, who has been Austrian since 1959, is calm about Hungary's upcoming presidency of the EU Council: “It's more a matter of prestige, because the big decisions are taken in the Council.” Which Orbán blocked more than once with his veto.
What's next in the Ukraine war? “The only way out is to support Ukraine with all military and financial means so that the price for Russia becomes too high.” The great danger lies in US domestic politics, which could reduce US involvement in Eastern Europe. “I doubt that European states will be able to sufficiently support Ukraine on their own,” says Lendvai, who in this context praises Britain but scolds France: “(French President Emmanuel) Macron should talk less and act more”.
And the Balkans? In his new book he leaves no doubt that the powder keg has not yet been disarmed. Nationalism has by no means been overcome, the situation in northern Kosovo and Albania is as dangerous as school classes in Serbia, which ignore the cruel wars and massacres of the recent past. “That's why what I said at the beginning also applies here. What we can learn from history is: something can always happen.”
(The interview was conducted by Wolfgang Huber-Lang/APA)
(SERVICE – Paul Lendvai: “On hypocrisy”, Zsolnay, 185 pages, 24.70 euros)