The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and his American counterpart, Joe Biden, last November. Susan Walsh (AP)
For the United States, Mexico has become the neighbor that asks for things one day and says no the next. And vice versa. Examples of the inconsistent stance of the current Mexican government can be found at every point of the complex agenda that has made the country south of Bravo the uncomfortable neighbor of North American power.
One of the recent episodes that illustrates the unpredictability of the relationship is being carried out by the Attorney General of the Republic, who is still in charge of Alejandro Gertz Manero.
What a luxury for those who were able to see the face of US officials when they learned Thursday that Mexico’s President had asked Washington to release allegedly incriminating evidence against Genaro García Luna, the former Secretary of State for Public Safety.
This is being demanded by the US authorities, while at the same time cooperation with them is suddenly stopped. And this attitude is not only represented by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, but also by the FGR.
Well-informed people comment that in recent weeks the Attorney General’s Office has unilaterally, capriciously and irresponsibly, it must be said, suspended cooperation with various US security agencies.
The reason for this interruption was the personal agenda of the prosecutor, who would have imposed this institutional contempt after interlocutors from Washington authorities refused to give him information about descendants of his ex-sister-in-law, 90-year-old, through unofficial channels or entirely outside of the law , who famously wanted to put in prison.
According to this version, what the prosecutor’s office unofficially requested was completely inappropriate and could be unlawful. Since this was not answered in the affirmative, the Mexican side let their counterpart freeze. From the United States, they began calling their staff in Mexico to question the closure of the collaboration channels, and the response was that the prosecutor asked about things that could not be delivered.
That was the preamble to President López Obrador’s now public request for the United States to disclose part of the investigation he has into former President Felipe Calderón aide.
Regardless of whether granting such a request might violate due process, it would be natural for Washington to back down in the face of a new demand from an administration whose actions have become unstable, unpredictable and unreliable. Because this court request is far from the only issue on which the bilateral relationship finds itself in a field of turbulence and uncertainty.
The issues on the agenda between the US and Mexico grow almost weekly. In the ending, a new front was opened in the energy sphere, which for some time has been riddled with clashes and disagreements between the interests of the two countries. On Monday, Energy Minister Rocío Nahle sent a letter to regulators demanding changes to allow everyone to buy natural gas from the Federal Electricity Commission.
Given that in this six-year term, the Energy Regulatory Commission’s (CRE) autonomy is a dead letter, and given that it would be naïve to expect the CRE and the National Center for Natural Gas Control (Cenagas) to be the body that is, too the official letter has been served, evaluate the arrest warrant and weigh its relevance against criteria that look for the best competition and greatest social benefit, it is assumed that these authorities have received an instruction rather than an invitation and will comply promptly and even willingly.
News of the warrant, which broke days after it was issued, surprised a sector already dismayed by a series of abrupt changes in electricity production and purchases; and among those who have suffered shocks from unilateral government decisions are US companies.
And although safeguards and court appeals have already been announced ahead of the measure intended by Nahle, the truth is that this rudeness, which once again crushes national and foreign interests, is so typical of López Obrador’s government that it is even surprising that If you haven’t done this, you’ve tried it before.
Andrés Manuel sees himself as a patriot. And his agenda to empower emblematic companies of Mexico’s energy past has been one of his main banners since his first campaign in 2006.
After failing in the Chamber of Deputies last April, his initiative to change the electricity market to favor the CFE undeniably decided on a series of constraints on the companies through which he de facto obtains what he wanted de jure with the law blocked by the opposition in San Lázaro.
The new strike’s measures, released Friday by Mexico’s Institute for Competitiveness, aim to “bolster the Federal Electricity Commission by forcing greater use of its underutilized natural gas transmission capacity,” but “it would reduce competition and the free market.” jeopardize competition in this sector. because it would force the users of the natural gas transportation service (via the gas pipelines of the integrated national natural gas transportation and storage system) to buy this hydrocarbon from the CFE subsidiaries, which are responsible for the commercialization and supply business of fuels”.
IMCO explained in a statement that we are faced with the scenario of violations of two articles of the Hydrocarbon Act and that, moreover, the measure would have “adverse effects not only for the transporters and marketers of this input, but also for the end users – in particular.” from the industry – which would be subject to the prices and quality of service set by the CFE”.
Beyond the concrete implications of the arrest warrant, not announced by López Obrador, as if he had wanted to cautiously distance himself in view of the visit this week of John Kerry, US envoy for the climate agenda and manager of interests, at the National Palace of his country’s companies, Affected by this renationalization of electric energy, the truth is that it is a policy as papist as himself, even if signed by the Minister of Energy, and consistent with López Obrador’s agenda, which the rule of law is shamelessly destroyed.
Because regardless of whether what the warrant dictates is applied or not, the damage is done. Once again, Mexico has made it clear to national, but above all to foreign investors, that nothing that is written on paper today is valid for this government. That if they can count, they have to reckon with the fact that their contracts, especially in the energy sector, can become paper every day, and that they line up when they have the right to step, a line in which there is also unnecessary The Americans, with Ambassador Ken Salazar as appointments manager, have been going to the National Palace almost every week for months to try to shield their deals in Mexico.
These negotiations in López Obrador’s office are also symbolic of something the Wall Street Journal timely reviewed last Sunday. The New Yorker newspaper reviewed the series of attacks AMLO has launched against the private sector, particularly the energy sector, and how this could impact a business model that has fueled the country’s growth for decades.
The subtext of the report is easy to see. Mexico has entered a dynamic that not only dismantles part of the conditions that gave it stability, but also breaks with the guiding principle of both the old Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the new TMEC, the final negotiations of which, incidentally, were led out by the team of Andres Manuel.
That guiding principle is trust, trust that Mexico was a serious partner, an actor whose problems would not outweigh its willingness to comply with the laws and agreements.
As various analysts have been saying for years, the main advantage of the Free Trade Agreement, which came into force in the disastrous year 1994, was that Mexico would implement a policy of promoting and consolidating a legal framework and legal administration that would give security to all actors in the country want to do business.
In a way that it was always an act of politics, an offer that governments would make changes to competition and regulatory laws, adopt and respect best practices in terms of free enterprise and fairness before the law, and have a robust system shielding entrepreneurs from the whims of rulers and six-year changes.
If Andrés Manuel found corruption in some concessions or contracts – something that would not surprise anyone by the way – if he sees no obligation to honor fake or lion-like contracts – something that people naturally support – he has several mechanisms and still does today a bulging power to fix or undo such things. And it can be pointed out that it has achieved it on many concessions – highways, prisons, gas pipelines…
However, as of early 2022, he appears to have won the rush as the six-year term enters its final stages. We are in the year, now it is evident, that without regard and without regard to the fact that his actions could be regressive, he will change any contractual condition he has, affecting or not affecting the CFE, especially privileged.
Ken Salazar can say that with his daily visits to the National Palace, he has managed to salvage part of what has been lost to the economic interests of companies in his country. This implies that the ambassador was able to defend his country’s agenda thanks to the fact that he enjoys the President’s sympathy. But it also implies that we are dealing with a scheme that depends on empathy between two people, the president and the envoy from Washington, and not on agreements that transcend humor or situation.
Other countries, on the other hand, do not shy away from saying in the corridors that Mexico with the unilateral changes in conditions, with the return to the unilateralism of the strong man in the palace, can do it once, but the next time Mexicans want to be at the business tables of the big ones sit, they will make you feel that there is no chair for those who do not follow the agreed rules.
But among trading partners, none have advanced as well as North Americans in decades, and chief among them is Uncle Sam, who is now being capped week in and week out as he calls for support. And the old adage warned that things cannot be done.
There will be a cost to the country, call it the Summit of the Americas or law enforcement cooperation, which the FGR has the luxury of conditioning at its whim on the migration issue or legal certainty.
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