Stephen Holder
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Stephen Holder
ESPN
- Stephen joined ESPN in 2022, covering the Indianapolis Colts and the NFL as a whole. Stephen placed first in column writing in the 2015 Indiana Associated Press Media Editors competition and was previously a top 10 winner in explanatory journalism in the national Associated Press Sports Editors competition. He has been covering the NFL since 2005, covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2005 to 2013 and the Colts since 2013. He previously worked for the Miami Herald, the Tampa Bay Times, the Indianapolis Star and The Athletic.
Seth Walder
January 21, 2024, 10:00 p.m. ET
All four divisional round games have been determined as the NFL playoffs continue to progress and next weekend's conference championship game matchups are determined. In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions will play against the 49ers in the San Francisco Bay Area for the chance to reach the Super Bowl. On the other hand, the Ravens will host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
To prepare you for the two games, Stephen Holder picked out what's most important to watch in both matchups and Seth Walder examined how all four teams can win to reach Super Bowl LVIII. Game lines run on ESPN BET.
Jump to a matchup:
Chiefs-Ravens | Lions-49ers
AFC Championship Game
When: Sunday, January 28 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening line: BAL-3 (44.5)
What you should know: The ideal ingredients for winning the postseason appear to be an elite quarterback and an elite defense. That brings us to the Ravens, only the fourth team since the 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. The three previous teams – the 1972 Dolphins, the 1978 Steelers and the 1996 Packers – all won the Super Bowl.
That's the combination of factors working in the Ravens' favor come Sunday. With a historic performance from quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Texans (two rushing TDs and two TD passes) and the Ravens defense limiting Houston to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (213), this appears to be a truly complete team be.
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But don't expect the Chiefs to be fazed in the slightest after defeating the Bills on the road in another memorable matchup between the rising rivals. After Sunday's premier quarterback matchup with Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen, there will be another in the AFC playoffs in the championship game when Mahomes and the Chiefs visit Jackson and the Ravens.
The Chiefs are 3-2 in AFC title games with Mahomes under center. But there's one key difference this season: The Chiefs have arguably the best defense of the Mahomes era. They finished the season second in points defense and yards allowed. No Kansas City team has finished higher than seventh in either category during Mahomes' tenure. — holder
Why the Ravens will win: Both sides of the ball are on fire for Baltimore. Let's start with defense, where the Ravens allowed zero offensive touchdowns in the divisional round against the Texans. The Ravens' defense wasn't as tough to beat against Houston as the Browns were in the wild-card round, and the unit was dominant, particularly against the run, where Baltimore allowed an EPA of minus-0.29 per play. This is nothing new for the Ravens' defense, which now ranks first in EPA per game over the course of the season, playoffs included.
Despite the Chiefs' brand name, the reality of this matchup is that Baltimore's defense was much, much better than Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs ranked 10th in EPA per game entering Sunday.
The Ravens are almost as strong on offense. They were good all season and went one better in the playoffs. Jackson posted a QBR of 94 against Houston and on his run plays or dropbacks, the Ravens collected 0.41 EPA per play. In other words, every fifth play by Jackson increased the Ravens' expected lead by two full points. The Chiefs' defense will provide more resistance than Houston's, but Kansas City ranks 11th in EPA per play allowed against opposing QB scrambles or runs. And overall, the Chiefs are simply weaker against the run, ranking 26th in EPA per opponent carry. It could be another big day for Jackson. — Walder
Why the Chiefs will win: It's still Mahomes with the best defense he's ever had. The Chiefs still have Andy Reid calling plays, a breakout receiver in Rashee Rice and an offensive line protecting Mahomes. And tight end Travis Kelce just had two touchdowns in the divisional round.
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Mahomes, Kelce TD connection sets NFL postseason record
Patrick Mahomes again connects with Travis Kelce for a Chiefs touchdown, giving them a postseason record 16 touchdowns as a QB-receiver duo.
Despite everything that's gone wrong this season – most notably the league's worst 5.7% early receiver drop rate and their inability to support Mahomes and the offense at an elite level – all of this means that the Chiefs have a chance to score big points in the AFC Championship Game. And while the Ravens led the league in sacks during the regular season, Mahomes simply refuses to take them. His sack rate of 3.9% and sack-to-pressure rate of 13.8% rank him second in the NFL behind Allen.
And even though Buffalo moved the ball at will at times against the Chiefs, the defense is still one of the best groups in the league over the long term, ranking fourth in EPA per plays allowed. In the end, Kansas City also kept the Bills out of the end zone.
The Chiefs are legitimate underdogs, but they just beat Baltimore's biggest challenger in the AFC. You can also beat the Ravens yourself. — Walder
NFC Championship Game
When: Sunday, January 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Opening line: SF -7 (51.5)
What you should know: The 49ers haven't won a Super Bowl since 1994. To put that in perspective, quarterback Steve Young threw three touchdown passes to Jerry Rice in Super Bowl XXIX victory over the Chargers. Still, the Niners will be making their seventh NFC Championship Game appearance since 2011. San Francisco has gone 2-4 in those games, three of which have come since 2019 under coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan has a chance to pass Bill Walsh for the best postseason winning percentage in club history with a win over Detroit.
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Quarterback Brock Purdy is trying to build a legacy of his own, and winning this game would go a long way after he was eliminated from the conference title game last season with an elbow injury. But the Lions are also trying to rewrite the history books. By winning two playoff games for the first time since 1957, they have already accomplished something most Lions fans have never seen in person. And the Lions are doing so with an explosive offense designed to test the 49ers' elite defense.
The whole thing is directed by quarterback Jared Goff, one of the best stories of this NFL season. After powering the Lions to 287 passing yards and two touchdown passes in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay, the Rams outcast has a chance to reach his second Super Bowl. If he takes the Lions to Las Vegas, they might just build him a statue in the Motor City. — holder
Why the 49ers will win: Yes, Purdy's performance in the divisional round against the Packers — when he posted a minus-6% completion percentage above expectations, according to NFL Next Gen Stats — was cause for concern. But the best way to judge a team is with a long lens, and when we do that, the 49ers still look pretty threatening.
And let’s think about the matchup here. The 49ers have the most efficient passing offense in football. What is the Lions' big weakness? Defend the pass. Entering Sunday, the Lions ranked 30th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback. San Francisco's plethora of offensive playmakers will be a nightmare for Detroit, and while the Lions' offense is also effective, they don't have nearly the same power.
The 49ers also have plenty of stars on defense to counteract. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave lead a pass rush that can put pressure on the quarterback despite only blitzing 20% of the time (sixth lowest), and cornerback Charvarius Ward and linebacker Fred Warner should be able to Detroit's Amon at least to mitigate -Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. — Walder
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Amon-Ra St. Brown scores a Lions touchdown
Jared Goff throws a strike into the end zone for Amon-Ra St. Brown, extending the Lions' lead.
Why the Lions will win: The Lions have two main factors working in their favor in the NFC Championship Game. First a shaky Purdy. Up until his win against the Packers, Purdy seemed pretty fallible. He's led an extremely efficient offense over the course of the season, but if he gets rattled at all, it gives Detroit hope.
Second, one thing you can do against the 49ers is attack them. This directly benefited the Lions as they rushed for 114 yards against Tampa Bay. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they are run-heavy and have the 11th highest run rate above expectations. Still, they are the sixth most efficient running team in the league in EPA per game thanks to the strong play of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Finally, the 49ers are one of the most efficient pass defenses due to their ability to knock down deep throws, ranking third in EPA per play allowed on attempts of 20 or more air yards. But that's a waste of skill against Detroit, which throws from deep just 7% of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL. The Lions will need the ball to bounce their way a few times, but they certainly have hope. — Walder