Throughout the weekend, the Munich Security Conference was the scene of discreet dialogues and public messages from many political leaders about the conflict between Hamas and Israel and the destabilization of the Middle East. In the Bavarian capital, a broad basic consensus is emerging about the necessary roadmap: ceasefire, release of hostages, provision of humanitarian aid in a first phase and, in parallel, the implementation of a process that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state with security guarantees for Israel and normalization its relations with Arab countries. These concepts were repeated with variations by Arab, European, American or Asian leaders. What is missing, beyond words, is the will or ability to convince the two competitors to take this path, and especially the one who holds a strong position: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly put it very clearly: “There are many people in international politics who agree on what needs to be done.” The problem is that we don't have a dance partner. That is why it is important to reach an agreement that includes the release of hostages and the pressure on Netanyahu, to distinguish between Israel and the current government of Israel, and to look for allies in Israel who will also put pressure on Netanyahu. This, meanwhile, sets the stage for a possible offensive on Rafah in southern Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Gazans are crowded together in terrible human suffering.
Throughout his political career, Netanyahu has consistently rejected the two-state solution and strongly advocated deepening policies of occupation and colonization that undermine the prospect of a viable Palestinian state. His current cabinet includes right-wing extremist leaders with very extreme approaches.
Over the weekend, during the Munich conference, it was announced that it had decided not to send its representatives to the negotiations in Egypt again, saying that Hamas' demands were “delusional.” This Sunday, the Israeli government announced in a statement its “firm” rejection of “international dictates regarding a permanent agreement with the Palestinians.” “The agreement, to the extent that it is reached, will only be reached through direct negotiations between the parties without any preconditions,” the statement continued. Many analysts believe that Netanyahu has a personal interest in preventing the conflict from calming down because it would eliminate the emergency situation that guarantees him to remain in power.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed al Thani said in the Bavarian capital that the development of the negotiations, in which his country is closely involved, was following a “not very promising” path. In Munich, Israeli President Isaac Herzog held a meeting with Al Thani, which he described as “a good discussion” and in which he acknowledged Qatar's “great efforts” in finding solutions.
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Isaac Herzog, President of Israel, and Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, in Munich on Saturday. RONALD WITTEK / POOL (EFE)
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said in the Bavarian capital that he believes Netanyahu will “continue the war all year long,” apparently hinting at a perceived willingness to wait until Donald Trump's possible victory in the U.S. election insisting on being more favorable to Israel's interests than the Joe Biden administration. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, it is planning a new major arms shipment to Israel, while calling for restraint in its public statements.
Opposition, but with the same goal
“Look, I am a clear political opponent of Netanyahu, but I share the strategic goal of eliminating Hamas,” said Tzipi Livni, Israel’s former foreign minister, in Munich at the same panel discussion in which Canada’s foreign minister also appeared. How difficult it is at the moment is to find allies in Israel to put pressure on Netanyahu.
Livni tried to show that Hamas is an actor with whom it is not possible to negotiate peace. “It does not accept Israel's right to exist and is a terrorist organization that deliberately aims to kill civilians. “It is immoral to compare it with the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces, which strive to avoid civilian casualties,” he said.
According to Palestinian sources, the death toll in Gaza since October 7th now stands at 29,000 dead, most of them women and minors. The destruction of infrastructure in the Gaza Strip is immense. Humanitarian aid entering the area has once again fallen to ridiculous levels, estimated at around dozens of trucks in Munich, while estimates suggest around 500 are needed daily.
The weakness of the Palestinian Authority (PNA) and the radicalism of Hamas naturally mean that the Palestinian side also lacks an adequate “dance partner,” as the head of the Palestinian Authority uses the metaphor. Canadian diplomacy. Shtayyeh dismissed questions about the ANP's apparent ineffectiveness and accused Israel of systematic measures to weaken the ANP. He also blamed him for the lack of elections in Palestine for almost two decades, recalling that Israel prevented voting in East Jerusalem in a rigged election several years ago. “This is not about the ANP’s ineffectiveness or lack of reforms. Let's not look at the symptoms, but at the root. The problem is the crew,” he said.
Russia call
Shtayyeh reported a significant political step by Russia, which he said had called “all Palestinian parties” to a meeting in Moscow on February 26. “We will see if Hamas leaves.” We are ready to work. “We need Palestinian unity,” said Shtayyeh, who stressed, however, that what was different was the prospect of integration within the PLO, which would require meeting political criteria that Hamas does not. The Palestinian prime minister claimed that there is currently no communication between Fatah and Hamas, breaking ties due to a violent conflict following the 2006 elections, which Hamas won.
So Russia appears to be trying to integrate itself into a mediation effort in which the United States and several Arab countries have so far played a leading role.
The European Union, for its part, sees its effectiveness on this issue undermined by internal disagreements. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Josep Borrell, acknowledged in Munich that although there was a common will regarding the goal of the two states, the group suffered from a “dispersion of initiatives”, with several actors “the want to play their own game. Spain and Ireland have asked to explore the possibility of reviewing relations with Israel if a violation of human rights obligations is found. However, the initiative is seen as more of a political gesture than an action with great chances of real progress.
The Spanish Foreign Minister said in Munich: “Security for Israelis and hope for Palestinians are inextricably linked.” The hope of the Palestinians is a state that includes the West Bank and Gaza, connected by a corridor and governed by a single Palestinian Authority. The reference to the corridor is particularly controversial from an Israeli perspective.
The interventions by US Vice President Kamala Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Munich emphasized Israel's right to defend itself. They have not explicitly expressed or hinted at their willingness to significantly increase pressure on Netanyahu's government if their military offensive continues to cause civilian suffering, which President Biden has described as excessive.
In the absence of greater pressure, Netanyahu is preparing a new phase of the offensive against the Rafah region. The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan insisted in Munich that their countries would not accept the forced relocation of Gaza citizens to their territories. Of course the Palestinians don't want that either. They remember that when they left their country seven decades ago, they could never return. But in Gaza there is no other place to go.
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