Supporters await the arrival of presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl of the main opposition People Power party during the February 15, 2022 presidential election campaign in Seoul, South Korea.
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A conservative victory in the upcoming presidential election in South Korea could lead to a firm stance on North Korea and China, potentially raising new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Yun Sok-yul of the Conservative People’s Power Party and Lee Jae-mung of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) are the favorites for the March 9 vote. A series of opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea, a research company, showed that Yun and Lee were running neck and neck, indicating that a close race was ahead. In a survey of 1,000 adults on February 25, Lee’s public approval rating was 38%, compared to 37% for Yun. Another poll in early February found the two at 35%.
Economic issues, especially housing, are at the forefront of these elections. But given North Korea’s continued missile activity and anti-Chinese sentiment at home, foreign policy issues are also expected to weigh on public sentiment. As each candidate has different views on relations with North Korea, China and the United States, there is much to do with South Korea’s geopolitical destiny.
North Korea
The Kim Jong Un government is stepping up missile tests as diplomatic talks with the United States and its allies remain stalled. This is not a new development, but against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it contributes to growing fears of regional unrest. Most recently, on February 27, Pyongyang launched a medium-range ballistic missile, according to officials in South Korea and Japan.
In line with his conservative predecessors, Yun urges North Korea to denuclearize first before the two Koreas agree on peace pacts and economic aid. In late November, he told South Korean newspaper Kookmin Ilbo that he would consider annulling the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, a diplomatic phase of President Moon Jae-in’s rule, if North Korea does not change its stance.
South Korean presidential candidate Li Je-mung of the ruling Democratic Party is watching before the televised presidential debate on the upcoming presidential election on March 9 at the KBS studio on March 2, 2022 in Seoul.
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In contrast, DP’s Lee supports Moon’s approach to diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation with North Korea as a means of initiating denuclearization. He also supports easing existing sanctions if North Korea complies. Unlike Yun, Lee is also open to declaring an end to the Korean War to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
However, although he shares similar views, analysts say Lee is unlikely to copy Moon’s policies. While Moon has personally invested heavily in developing an inter-Korean summit and is trying to build sustainable cooperative relations with North Korea, Lee is more likely to uphold the principle of peaceful coexistence, while not wanting to spend too much political capital. for trying to achieve it, especially if Pyongyang doesn’t cooperate, “Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center’s independent think tank, told CNBC.
Complicating matters further is Yoon’s focus on resuming joint military exercises with the United States. They have been reduced since 2018, “due to North Korea’s perception of these maneuvers in preparation for war,” Fei Xue, an Asian analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC. Therefore, the revival is likely to anger Kim Jong Un. Yun’s position is “tough enough to force North Korea to abandon diplomacy altogether, as was the case during Lee and Park’s tenure,” Khang X. Vu, a doctoral student and policy specialist in East Asia, said in a note. at Boston College. from the Lowey Institute.
China and the United States
In recent weeks, South Korean media have been flooded with protests against China following controversy over the Beijing Winter Olympics. Combined with broader concerns about Beijing’s aggressive stance toward its neighbors in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region, the Asian giant has become a focal point for this election. South Korea’s position on China is also closely linked to its relations with the United States, given the historic rivalry between Beijing and Washington, which means that Seoul is often in a position to prioritize one of the two superpowers.
“Lee is expected to stick to a relationship of strategic uncertainty with China, wanting to balance security and economic relations,” Town said. Like Moon, Lee understands that he needs Chinese support on both the North Korean issue and the economic front. “Lee Jae-mung is more concerned about China’s economic influence over South Korea and will therefore take a more neutral position,” Xue said. “However, growing tensions between the United States and China will make this approach increasingly difficult to maintain,” Xue added.
Yoon Seok-Youl delivers his speech after winning the last People’s Power Party race to elect its candidate for president of the 2022 South Korean election on November 5, 2021 in Seoul.
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Yun, meanwhile, is pushing for stronger security co-operation with the United States, calling in particular for the deployment of a high-altitude Terminal Defense, which is sure to trigger economic punishment from China. The installation of the US missile defense system in South Korea led to a year-long confrontation between Beijing and Seoul from 2016 to 2017, with South Korea’s tourism, cosmetics and entertainment industries rocked by the Chinese reaction. Yun also wants to apply for membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, as well as participate in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing program, “despite China’s possible opposition to such moves,” Xue said. However, Yun’s desire to openly side with the United States will be called into question, “if or when China starts putting pressure on Seoul,” Town said.
Japan
Relations with Tokyo deteriorated under the current Moon Jae-in administration due to trade disputes and unresolved issues over Japan’s colonial rule over Korea from 1910 to 1945. The latter included issues such as Japan’s recruitment of South Korean women for military brothels. Khan Chang-il, South Korea’s ambassador to Japan, said in January that bilateral relations were at their “worst” level since 1965.
This is expected to improve under a conservative regime. In a televised debate last month, Yun said Seoul’s relations with Washington and Tokyo had deteriorated due to “submissive diplomacy that is pro-Chinese and pro-North Korea,” adding that he would change that dynamic. Yun is expected to put aside historical disputes with Japan to resolve bilateral trade conflicts and build closer security co-operation, several experts told CNBC.
While Lee agrees with the importance of South Korea and Japan improving bilateral relations and is open to negotiations, he urges Japan to make efforts to properly resolve historical disputes.
Rising regional tensions over China’s assertiveness, US efforts to contain China, or North Korea’s long-range missile and nuclear tests will reduce the number of political options the next South Korean president may pursue.
Khang X. Vu
PhD student and policy specialist in East Asia
The essence of Asian geopolitics
Although each candidate offers radically different views on inter-Korean relations and rivalry between the United States and China, several analysts said that the dynamics of Asia-Pacific security and policy do not allow for major changes in foreign policy.
“Increasing regional tensions caused by China’s persistence, US efforts to contain China or North Korea’s long-range missile and nuclear tests will reduce the number of political options the next South Korean president may pursue,” Wu said in a statement. Note. “Unfortunately, such a deterioration in regional dynamics is increasingly likely.”
Stimson Center’s Town said: “Even in trying to cultivate deeper relations with other middle powers, as South Korea is currently trying to create a buffer for itself amid growing US-China rivalry, it is a long-term process. . She added: “In the near term, South Korea will continue to face a strategic dilemma as it works to focus on US-China competition, while strengthening its own defenses against significant improvements in North Korea’s weapons capabilities. .