The Energy Watcher detailed a 10-point contingency plan that includes lowering the speed limit on highways by at least 6 mph, working from home up to three days a week where possible, and no cars in cities on Sundays.
Other steps in the contingency plan include expanding car sharing, using high-speed and night trains instead of planes, phasing out business air travel whenever possible, and encouraging walking, cycling and public transportation.
If fully implemented, these moves would reduce global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels per day over four months, equal to the amount of oil consumed by all cars in China, the IEA said. And the impact would be greater if developing countries such as India and China adopted them in part or in full.
However, emergency measures could disrupt or even slow down the global economy, which remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, especially for transportation. The IEA suggests that the headaches would be better than the alternative.
“As a result of Russia’s horrendous aggression against Ukraine, the world may well face the biggest oil supply shock in decades, with huge implications for our economy and society,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The proposals reflect a recognition that the world has little real ability to quickly replace oil supplies from Russia, which will become the world’s second largest oil producer in 2021.
OPEC has signaled it is in no rush to increase production, and the release of emergency oil stockpiles has done little to ease fears of a shortage.
“The US and other IEA countries are now realizing that the potential loss of oil exports from Russia represents a larger supply shock than neither the reduction in strategic reserves nor the accelerated increase in OPEC+ production can solve,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy.
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has driven oil prices up over the past month, pushing gasoline prices in the United States to record highs. Although oil prices have pulled back from their recent highs, oil soared back above $100 a barrel on Thursday due to renewed concerns about the impact on Russia’s energy supplies.