Today I like the odds against a somewhat overlooked National Hockey League (NHL) team that also fits well into one of my most lucrative betting systems: “porous defense.”
Let me briefly explain the rules of this system to you. If the home team has allowed four or more goals in each of the last two games (not necessarily losses) and the decimal odds are greater than 2.05 or +105 in the American format, we should bet on it.
Want to know how this system is performing so far in 2023-2024? I'm glad you asked! This strategy works very well because it always favors the underdogs.
At this point in the season the success rate is over 50%. The win-loss record is 20-17, while the profit is +13.94, all accompanied by an incredible return on investment of 37.7%.
What does that mean specifically? This means that if you had bet $100 on each of the two options, you would have made a profit of $1,394.
However, can you identify the team that is now associated with the “porous defense”?
The Calgary Flames, hosting the Winnipeg Jets, enter the game having allowed four or more goals in each of their previous two meetings. They conceded eleven goals, five against the New Jersey Devils and, believe it or not, six against the miserable San Jose Sharks.
At the time of writing, the Flames had odds of +110 in the American format, or 2.10 under many oddsmakers. So my official tip of the day is a small surprise win against the Winnipeg Jets.
They are 15-7-3 this season. On the other hand, the Flames have a 12-13-1 record at the Scotiabank Saddledome, which I have to admit is not very convincing.
The Jets surprised a lot of people this year too. They were fantastic defensively throughout the season. With an average of 2.29 goals per game, the solid defense is the best in the league. Such a feat is enough to make Washington's intelligence community blush.
Offensively, the season statistics show that there is very little separating the two clubs from each other. So far, the Jets have scored a total of three goals and 30.8 shots per game. For their part, the Flames have accumulated 3.02 goals and 31.4 shots, which is slightly better.
To break through the Jets' defensive stronghold, the Flames will need to add some key weapons up front. This season, Nazem Kadri scored 17 goals and provided 28 assists for 45 points. Blake Coleman was also solid, collecting 43 points with 21 goals and 22 assists. To beat the Jets defense, both men will have to be at their best.