The scandal began with FIDESZ politician Katalin Novak. The President, who has been in office since mid-2022, had to resign after widespread public outrage. It was learned that she forgave a man convicted of covering up pedophilia crimes. The pardon had already taken place in April 2023, during the Pope's visit to Budapest – but the case only became public now.
The former Minister of Justice, Judit Varga, also had to draw conclusions: she signed the pardon request. Varga resigned from his position as member of parliament and – particularly with serious consequences – must also resign from FIDESZ's main candidacy for the EU elections. Two high-level resignations and, therefore, impacts on the Orbán system. To limit the damage, Orban responded with a plan for constitutional change: criminals whose victims are children should therefore never be allowed to be pardoned.
APA/AFP/Attila Kisbenedek “I made a mistake”: Novak, Orban's former confidant, had to resign as president
“The government cannot end the debate”
It was a reaction to the protests launched by the opposition, among others – thousands of people in Budapest demanded the resignation of Head of State Novak. But is all this a threat to Orbán? There have been scandals involving FIDESZ politicians before, Eastern Europe expert Tobias Spöri from the University of Vienna told ORF.at. But now it is “very special that the government cannot put out this fire and end the debate,” Spöri said. The introduction of the ban on pardons shows that there is a “certain unrest”.
IMAGO/EST&OST/Szilard Vörös Former Justice Minister Varga represented a strong anti-Brussels course as minister. A strong profile for the EU election campaign – but no longer leading it.
“Extreme weather against the inner circle”
Another event also brought unrest: after the dismissal of former Minister of Justice Varga, her ex-husband Peter Magyar went public. He openly criticized the system and announced that he would resign from all his positions in state-owned companies. “He vehemently criticized the FIDESZ inner circle, even though he himself is part of the system,” Spöri said. Magyar said that “he did not want to be part of a system (…) in which those responsible hide behind women’s skirts.”
In a video interview with the online media or YouTube channel Partizan, Magyar returned and spoke about the immense pressure of control that his family suffered, but also about the discomfort because “the country's economy is in the hands of two, three families.” . The public attention was enormous: “Normally these videos have a few thousand clicks, this video had 1.6 million views”, says political scientist Spöri.
picturedesk.com/AFP/Attila Kisbenedek Magyar put his cards on the table via Partizan and didn't give a damn about the system he himself is part of
“Image of a united party tarnished”
Magyar's statements “shed light on the inner workings” of the government – the image of a united party “whose main objective is the solution of national interests” is being obscured, expert Bulcsu Hunyadi from the independent Budapest Political Capital Institute tells ORF . at the. He sees the motivation for the statements mainly in the personal sphere, “to save the ex-wife’s credibility”. However, it provides the media and the opposition with material with which the issue can be kept present.
“Radical measures necessary”
In general, the withdrawal of Orban's main EU candidate Varga and President Novak describes the importance of the situation: “It is a great sign for the party that two female politicians have resigned now, belonging to the inner circle, they are very loyal and also occupied central roles”, says Spöri. Former Justice Minister Varga took a strong anti-Brussels line while minister. “The fact that Orbán is now sacrificing her is a great sign that radical measures are obviously needed” to calm the situation.
The next resignation took place on Friday: Zoltan Balog, the main bishop of the Hungarian Reformed Church, resigned from his post. According to media reports, as President Novak's longtime mentor, he played a key role in the pardon. He would have suggested to the president that she grant an amnesty.
“It seriously harms credibility”
The case is also sensational because it contradicts the party line in terms of content; expert Hunyadi speaks of a “central element of FIDESZ’s identity” that is now being undermined. In recent years, FIDESZ has made child protection one of the pillars of its political agenda and has frequently accused political opponents of pedophilia. A child protection law was also created that groups pedophilia and homosexuality, Hunyadi said.
Likewise, expert Spöri: “Novak was also minister of the family (before becoming president, note) and was particularly committed to this.” The scandal hit a “core issue for FIDESZ and its electorate – and of course this hugely damages credibility,” says Spöri. However, FIDESZ's strongholds are in rural areas and many of the current developments may not even penetrate these areas.
Orbán will probably want to “cover up” the case
But the longer the scandal is discussed publicly, the more likely people are to be mobilized, says expert Spöri. Orban will likely once again portray himself as the “protector of the nation” in Saturday’s State of the Nation address. If he addressed the case, he would probably point out that the dismissals “are just a sign of how morally upright FIDESZ really is.”
In any case, Orbán will probably try to regain control, cover up the pardon case and draw attention to another issue, says Hunyadi, the Budapest expert. Preparatory work for this strategy was already carried out on Friday by FIDESZ Chancellor Gergely Gulyas, who declared the case closed. Everything that had to happen happened, said the minister.
Tens of thousands of people in Budapest's Heroes' Square
In Hungary, tens of thousands of people took to the streets on Friday to protest against the pardon in an abuse case. Celebrities from the music and cultural scene, as well as influencers, called for protests in Heroes' Square, in the city center of Budapest.
The fact that many in the country do not share this view was demonstrated by the tens of thousands of people who gathered in Budapest's Heroes' Square on Friday night for one of the biggest demonstrations in recent years. Ultimately, any consequences will be determined by the results of the EU elections and the June elections in Budapest, which is currently ruled by the opposition, where FIDESZ is doing everything it can to gain power there too. One thing is certain, says expert Hunyadi: the case presents “significant risks” for the government.