There will be no snowstorm impacting an NFL playoff game this weekend like the one that forced the Buffalo Bills to postpone their home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on wild-card weekend. Instead, it's pouring rain that could make for a damp Sunday in the Baltimore-Washington area when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium.
It is still too early to say whether the rain will be heavy enough to significantly impact passing and shooting, or whether there will be lighter showers that will be more of a nuisance for fans. Isolated flooding is possible across the region from Saturday night into Sunday, but it does not look like the rain will be heavy enough to cause widespread flooding concerns, despite it being so wet so far this month and winter.
Temperatures will be much more comfortable than the Ravens' last game on Saturday against the Houston Texans in Baltimore, when the temperature around kickoff was 24 degrees with a wind chill of 4 degrees. This past weekend, the Chiefs hosted the coldest game ever at Arrowhead Stadium and the fourth coldest game in NFL history against the Miami Dolphins, with a kickoff temperature of minus-4 degrees and a wind chill of minus-27 degrees.
The rain could end in some snow on Sunday night before the precipitation tapers off.
The weekend starts with a partly to mostly cloudy and mostly dry Saturday, at least for much of the day. Rain is expected to move into the Baltimore-Washington region from the west and south early Saturday evening, with periods of rain likely throughout the night and well into Sunday.
It's not out of the question that the rain will only get lighter on Sunday afternoon, or that there will be a well-timed break in the rain during the game, which is scheduled for 3 p.m. Anyway, it's a humid, cooler and increasingly windy day with temperatures mostly in the 40s. Winds should be from the north, sustained around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts around 20 mph.
Total rainfall amounts of approximately 1/2 to 1 inch should not cause widespread flooding, but isolated areas of flooding are possible as the ground is saturated.
Could the rain end up as snow on Sunday evening?
Models show persistent rain showers could turn into wet snow showers Sunday evening and overnight, particularly north of D.C., including in and around Baltimore. Some models even predict an accumulation of about half an inch.
It is not certain whether the atmosphere will cool enough to convert the rain to snow before the precipitation stops, and even if it did, model accumulation predictions are likely exaggerated given that temperatures are unlikely to fall below the mid 30°C values will fall.
Still, we can't rule out more heavy snowfall, causing light accumulation, particularly on grassy areas north and west of DC and Baltimore, and possibly even a slushy layer on sidewalks and side roads as temperatures drop to around 32 to 34 degrees.
One of the wettest Januarys and winters so far
Washington's 4.26 inches of precipitation from Jan. 1 through Wednesday is about twice the normal rainfall amount for that period, after D.C. recorded its fourth wettest December on record with 6.43 inches. At 10.69 inches since December 1, this is the city's second lowest winter to date, just one inch behind the 11.69 inches that fell during the same period in the winter of 1936-1937.
Washington has already had five calendar days with an inch or more of rain since Dec. 1, the most of any winter so far. The maximum number for an entire winter was six, in both 1901-1902 and 1884-1885.
This is also the second lowest winter to date in Baltimore, where the 12.36 inches through Wednesday is just behind the 12.59 inches that fell so far in 1936-1937.
Ian Livingston contributed to this report.