Portugal, which formally entered the campaign trail on Sunday for March 10 general elections, could swing to the right thanks to a surge of anti-system populists after eight years of socialist rule punctuated by an influence scandal.
After the issue of corruption has come to the fore due to the circumstances of the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is not running for re-election, “in this European situation it favors the radical right,” notes political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto, of the Institute of Social Sciences from the University of Lisbon (ICS).
Several European Union countries, including Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and Finland, are led by coalitions that include a far-right party in their ranks. The Netherlands could join this list after Geert Wilders' victory in November's general election.
In Portugal, which celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in April and the end of a fascist dictatorship almost as long ago, the far right has taken longer than elsewhere to shake up the political landscape, but the theory of a Lusitanian exception is now considered irrefutable.
The young Chega party (“Enough” in Portuguese), founded in 2019 by a former football commentator turned destroyer of political-economic elites, is credited with 15 to 20% of voting intentions.
“No is no”
In the January 2022 parliamentary elections, this anti-immigrant, but not anti-European, formation had already advanced to the rank of third political force, obtaining 7.2% of the vote and 12 elected officials in a 230-seat parliament.
Its president André Ventura, a member of the Identity and Democracy group of France's Rassemblement Nationale or the Alternative for Germany, now hopes to challenge the hegemony of the Social Democratic Party (PSD, center-right) within the Portuguese right, which overall should become the majority.
However, the main opposition party, led by Luis Montenegro, remains better placed in the polls than Chega, where it appears with ratings of around 30% and a slight lead over the Socialist Party (PS).
As the vote approaches, the main question is whether the center-right will actually come out on top and to what extent it will rely on Chega's support to govern.
Mr Montenegro, who is running on behalf of the Democratic Alliance (AD), which consists of two small conservative parties, has already ruled out any agreement with the far right and hopes to form a stable majority with the help of the Liberal Initiative (LI).
“No means no,” he repeated every time the question was asked.
A series of scandals
Costa's successor at the head of the Socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, has already considered not hindering the formation of a center-right minority government.
But according to analyst Antonio Costa Pinto, “The Cordon Santé against the radical right is not working in European democracies, and Portugal will be another example.”
“This crisis was caused by an accusation by the justice system against the political elite, which raises very important ethical issues,” he explains.
Antonio Costa has been in power since late 2015 and won a historic victory in the January 2022 general election, but his first absolute majority proved very unstable.
Despite a balance sheet characterized by the consolidation of public finances and a relatively good economic condition, the leadership succumbed to a series of scandals and resignations.
The final blow came in an influence-peddling investigation into one of his ministers and his own chief of staff, who had hidden $110,800 in cash on his office shelves.
Mr. Costa, who himself was accused by prosecutors, resigned in early November and said he would not seek a new mandate.