Before championship weekend, eight teams – Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, Alabama and Ohio State (just barely) – can still reach the College Football Playoff. This is the highest value ever in the ten-year CFP era.
Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017 and 2019, but even in those cases one or more teams would have had to pull off an unlikely upset in the conference championship. What stands out about this year’s field is that the seven teams competing this weekend all have a good chance of winning their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to cause chaos.
Including arguably the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama defeats Georgia and No. 4 beats a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending champion.
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Even ignoring the impossibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw that in my face if the Hawkeyes get a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of outcomes involving the ACC (Florida State- Louisville) and the Big 12 (Texas-Oklahoma State), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon) and SEC championship games (Georgia-Alabama). Below I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams based on each set of results.
For that reason, I expect the committee on Tuesday to drop Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 5 after its 30-24 road loss to Michigan, behind the four undefeated teams but the highest of the one-loss teams, but I I know some from Oregon, Texas and Alabama would overtake the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.
Georgia is looking to achieve the first three-pointer in college football since Minnesota from 1934-36. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5.Texas (12-1)
Obviously this is as simple as it gets.
Scenario 2: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Oklahoma State win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
I take it back: This one is even simpler.
Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Washington (13-0)
4.Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As 12-1 conference champions, Texas gets the nod ahead of Ohio State.
Scenario 4: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Washington (13-0)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
—
5. Florida State (12-1)
This is the only one of the 16 scenarios in which Ohio State can pull it off, and it requires a perfect storm. The Buckeyes need both the ACC and Big 12 to eliminate themselves, which opens the door for a conference to get two spots. That means they also need Oregon to lose.
Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5.Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently ranked Oregon one-loss over Texas one-loss, even though the Horns arguably have a better resume; So there’s no reason to think that will change if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even had them pass undefeated FSU.
Scenario 6: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Oklahoma State win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5.Washington (12-1)
It’s possible the committee will consider keeping the Huskies in the top four, as they would likely still have four top-25 wins (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State and Utah). But I think they’re leaving out a 13-0 team when I see it.
Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4.Texas (12-1)
—
5.Washington (12-1)
Another difficult decision at No. 4, especially considering Texas would have to move up three spots but the Horns would be conference champions and the Huskies would not.
Scenario 8: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2.Michigan (13-0)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4.Washington (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
This is the only scenario in which I can imagine the Pac-12 hosting two teams. Washington’s resume would be superior to Ohio State’s.
Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Washington (13-0)
3.Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Every scenario from here involves Alabama beating Georgia, and they’re all messy. But in none of them is undefeated FSU left out. If Alabama advances to No. 3, the direct loss to Texas would be void.
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Scenario 10: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Washington (13-0)
3.Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
The same thing.
Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Washington (13-0)
3.Alabama (12-1)
4.Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely insane debate, but once again I’m defaulting to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.
Scenario 12: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Washington (13-0)
3.Alabama (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Georgia over Ohio State is not an open and shut case.
Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Alabama (12-1)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now both Alabama and Oregon come into the game with a loss. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia wouldn’t have easily beaten a 12-0 team.
Scenario 14: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Alabama (12-1)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same debate between FSU and Georgia. Same result.
Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Alabama (12-1)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4.Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Like Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.
Scenario 16: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.
1.Michigan (13-0)
2.Alabama (12-1)
3.Oregon (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Basically, if Georgia loses on Saturday afternoon, it’s better for Louisville to win that night.
All in all, here’s how often each team attends:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
•Washington: 9
•Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
•Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1
(Top photo: Jamie Schwaberow / Getty Images)