China and the Ukraine War Dilemma 7:42
Hong Kong (CNN) — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is due to meet his counterparts in China and India this week, two countries under pressure to condemn Russia’s crackdown on Ukraine as the death toll from unprovoked conflicts soars.
Lavrov met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for the first time on Wednesday ahead of a scheduled flight to India on Thursday, in only his second overseas trip since the Russian invasion began on February 24.
On paper, Lavrov’s meeting with Wang was apparently about the unrest in Afghanistan. However, one expert said it was “inconceivable” that they had not discussed the situation in Ukraine, including the tough sanctions the international community had imposed on Russia and its ally Belarus.
“It is inconceivable that the parties would avoid Ukraine in their talks, regardless of what they say about the focus of the visit,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, ahead of the visit.
China: What are the consequences of supporting Russia in the war? 1:10
Lavrov’s trip will give him an opportunity to assess the state of Russia’s relations with China and India as they come under increasing international scrutiny for their lack of a vigorous response to Moscow.
Both China and India have refused to condemn Russia’s brutal invasion, and both have abstained from voting on United Nations resolutions demanding that Moscow immediately end its attack on Ukraine.
At the end of Lavrov’s first day in China on Wednesday, Beijing had made its position clear.
“There is no ceiling for Sino-Russian cooperation, there is no ceiling for us to fight for peace, there is no ceiling for us to ensure security, and there is no ceiling for us, us of hegemony to resist,” said Defense Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, China External Relations, Xinhua News Agency reports.
Reaffirmation of China’s friendship
Ever since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, China has tried to adopt what it calls a neutral position, choosing not to impose sanctions on Moscow or even call it an invasion. Instead, China is increasingly blaming the US and NATO for the conflict, with state media promoting Russian disinformation.
On Wednesday, Wang Wenbin reiterated China’s stance that “dialogue and negotiations are the only right way to solve the Ukraine crisis” and warned against “pouring fuel on the fire,” a phrase often used by Chinese officials who criticize western sanctions.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have publicly nurtured their partnership in recent years, even declaring in February that their relationship “knows no boundaries.” They are successful business partners, conduct joint military training exercises, and both have denounced what they see as Western interference in internal affairs, often voting as a bloc at the United Nations.
“There is a common goal between these two sides, particularly in relation to the kind of international order they would like to see,” said Manoj Kewalramani, a fellow in China Studies at the Takshashila Institution in India.
But the invasion of Ukraine has tested that relationship as China faces the growing threat of secondary sanctions if it helps Russia, putting Lavrov’s visit at great risk and allowing both sides to sort out “grey areas” of their relationship, called tsang.
“The war is at a difficult stage for Russia, and I see Moscow wanting to determine the extent of Chinese aid or support going forward,” Tsang said. “On the Chinese side, I see that Beijing wants to know what Moscow is up to as a final and how (Russia’s) plans might affect China.”
Tsang added that Xi likely wants to continue his and the country’s relationship with Putin, but the Chinese president “will not pay a significant price for it.” Russia is also “ultimately realistic that Beijing’s ‘unlimited friendship’ actually has clear boundaries,” Tsang said.
On Wednesday, Wang Yi and Lavrov left their meetings with a show of unity and appeared to reaffirm their countries’ friendship.
“China-Russia relations have withstood the new test of the changing international landscape,” Wang said after the meeting. “China stands ready to work with Russia to bring China-Russia relations to a higher level in the new era.”
He expressed his support for Russia and Ukraine to “overcome difficulties and continue peace talks” and praised Russia’s efforts to “prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis”.
Russian bombs destroyed civilian structures during the war, including homes, schools, hospitals and temporary housing, and left besieged cities, particularly Mariupol, without heating, electricity or water.
Biden says there will be ramifications if China backs Russia 5:13
India’s Defense Trade
Lavrov will arrive in India later on Thursday for a two-day visit, according to India’s Foreign Ministry.
His trip comes amid a spate of diplomatic activity involving India. Earlier this month, leaders of Japan and Australia held summits with their Indian counterparts. Also this week, diplomats from Germany and the European Union will visit Delhi. And Lavrov’s visit will coincide with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and US Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics Daleep Singh.
“I think that’s largely due to what’s happening in Europe and Ukraine right now,” Kewalramani said. “Obviously there are discussions about India’s response.”
India has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion despite pressure from its Western partners, and one of the main reasons is India’s reliance on Russian arms for its own national security, Kewalramani added.
For years, India, the world’s largest democracy, has sought to counter China’s growing influence in the region, particularly as tensions flared on its disputed border and escalated in 2020 after soldiers from both sides took part in the fiercest bloody clash in decades.
And Russia has been instrumental in helping India bolster its territorial defenses. In 2018, India signed a $5 billion arms deal with Russia for an air defense missile system. It is estimated that more than 50% of Indian military equipment comes from Russia.
This relationship is “essential to India’s interests, especially India’s security interests,” Kewalramani said.
The many foreign diplomats now visiting and speaking with Indian officials may be trying to change India’s stance, he added, although many “understood” India’s security concerns.
For example, Truss, the British Foreign Secretary, has described her visit as a “diplomatic push” to counter the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“I want to build an even closer relationship between our two nations,” Truss said in a statement from the British Foreign Office on Wednesday. “This is all the more important in the context of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and underscores the need for free democracies to work more closely together in areas such as defence, trade and cybersecurity.”
Given that, Lavrov “probably wants to get a sense of the mood in India, where India is politically,” Kewalramani said.
He added that while India would not express public support for the Russian invasion, talks were ongoing in the country about its economic and strategic future.
“Are efforts being made to see if ways can be found to move Indian politics? Of course that is clearly the case,” he said. “I think you will see that India remains cautious while trying to see where it can protect its interests.”
CNN’s Manveena Suri, Simone McCarthy, Brad Lendon, Rhea Mogul and Julia Hollingsworth contributed to this report.