Russian officials this week escalated their rhetoric about Western support for Ukraine in the current conflict. But it is not yet clear how Russia intends to respond.
“A total war has begun,” Duma deputy Oleg Morozov said on Friday during a talk show appearance on Russia’s First Channel, “and we must make it clear to the collective West that it has no chance of winning this war.”
Morozov’s statement followed comments from Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger, who confirmed on Friday that the NATO member had donated an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine.
“I am sure that in the very near future we will see special operations of both our air forces and our special forces to destroy arms shipments from NATO countries,” Morozov said.
Soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment await the arrival of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg September 9, 2015 at the Czech Army barracks in Prague, Czech Republic, where they were traveling in the ‘Danube Ride’ convoy from their home base in Vilseck , Bavaria, Germany to Hungary to take part in NATO exercise Brave Warrior. Photo by Matej Divizna/Getty Images
“The West wants this war to go on as long as possible,” Morosow added. “They assume that this war will exhaust our military and economic resources.”
He also acknowledged, without saying so directly, that Russia has not achieved its military goals.
“The war has changed, and we can only win this war by using different means than what we have used before,” Morosov said.
Recent history hints at possible next steps for Moscow. Before the start of the current conflict, Russia had been credibly accused of conducting covert operations on the territory of NATO countries to disrupt arms shipments to Ukraine.
On October 16, 2014, a Czech arms depot in the town of Vrbětice exploded, killing two workers. According to research by the Czech magazine, the guns belonged to the Bulgarian arms dealer Emilyan Gebrev, who wanted to send the shipments to Ukraine. At the time, Ukraine was waging a defensive war against Russian-backed separatists in the country’s eastern Donbass region.
In April 2021, the Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats after evidence surfaced that the blast was caused by agents of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency. The agents in question, Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepiga, arrived in Prague on October 13, 2014 and left on the day of the explosion. Records show that during their trip they used forged documents to gain access to the weapons depot where the explosion later occurred.
In February 2020, Bulgarian prosecutors accused three Russian GRU agents of attempting to assassinate arms dealer Gebrev. The attack was carried out in the Bulgarian capital Sofia in spring 2015.
Although Morozov called the current conflict “an all-out war with the collective West,” Russia is not known to have taken similar action on the territory of any NATO country in recent weeks.
But if his characterization of the conflict is accurate, that relative reluctance may soon change.
Morozov sees the Ukraine war as an existential crisis – but for Russia, not for Ukraine.
“If you imagine what would happen if Washington and Brussels went ahead with their plans, it would be a scary world,” said the Duma deputy, “a world with no place for Russia.”
“Russia’s withdrawal from the world political arena as a result of this crisis is the dream of the collective West,” Morosow added. “We have no right to allow them to achieve that goal.”