Is Russia developing a nuclear weapons program in space? Washington suggests it, Moscow denies it and analysts wonder about a distant but worrying prospect in an explosive geopolitical context.
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Between explanations and assumptions, insight into a threat that contributes to the already exponential militarization of space.
Accusations and denials
The American allegations spread in several waves last week. The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee initially spoke of “information relating to a serious threat to national security.”
American media then asserted that Moscow was considering deploying a nuclear weapon in space, before the White House mentioned “an anti-satellite capability developed by Russia” without confirming its nuclear nature.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow is “categorically opposed” to the use of nuclear weapons in space, while his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that his country “does not have” this type of weapon.
For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron called for “immediate explanations.”
Questions about Russian weapons
Public information is minimal, forcing analysts to speculate.
“Is this a renewed Cold War system or a new program?” asks Danish expert Hans Christensen from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
“We know that nothing has been deployed yet and it seems that there is no concrete plan to detonate anything,” emphasizes Pavel Podvig, a Russian nuclear expert.
He speaks of the possibility of a project “discussed by the Russian military industry” and “amplified by American intelligence for manipulation and political purposes.”
A nuclear attack in space?
Today, space is completely overloaded with civil, military and commercial satellites. The detonation of a nuclear bomb would destroy everything in its path, including the attacker's satellites.
“It could cause great harm, completely non-discriminatory, which makes me skeptical about the reality of this plan,” adds Pavel Podvig. “You can target a particular system (…), but that would destroy many others,” including Russian satellites and those of its Chinese allies.
“Space is a very specific environment in which everyone is interdependent,” confirms Xavier Pasco, director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
“The danger of a nuclear explosion in space is completely irrational and completely incomprehensible.”
Nuclear power in space
On the other hand, Soviet satellites (Rorsat) had already used nuclear reactors as a source of energy, especially for radars, in the 1970s and 1980s.
Xavier Pasco hypothesizes that the Russians “have succeeded in developing, or are in the process of developing, a weapon powered by a nuclear reactor that generates significant energy flows.”
In fact, space has played an important role in warfare, particularly in Ukraine, justifying Russia's attempt to develop counterforces there.
“We know of programs in Russia that go in this direction, but we don’t know how advanced they are,” adds the French researcher.
Space is already militarized
The militarization of the cosmos is as old as the space race. Since Sputnik was launched into orbit in 1957, Washington and Moscow have sought ways to weaponize and destroy satellites.
In 1967, the superpowers and other countries signed the Outer Space Treaty, which banned the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
Russia destroyed one of its own satellites by firing a missile from Earth in 2021, sparking violent protests. But the conflict has evolved, moving from the idea of destroying satellites to the idea of neutralizing them with ultra-powerful lasers, directed energy or microwave weapons.
Geopolitical tensions
Concern is growing that space, like land or underwater environments, could become a place of confrontation.
A space nuclear weapon would trigger a new arms race, “would challenge American space strategy, sabotage (international) standards and worry allies,” estimate Clementine Starling and Mark Massa of the Atlantic Council.
“The United States and its allies and partners must respond,” they recommend. But “there is no need to fall into hysteria” because the hypothesis “would not significantly change the balance of power between the United States and Russia in space or on the ground.”