Due to the image and symbolism, there were two small but powerful explosions: two drones over the Kremlin. Russia first accused Ukraine and then the United States of launching an attack last Wednesday. Kiev and Washington have firmly denied their involvement and there is no evidence as to who is behind what happened. While intelligence sources say it’s too early to tell, analysts and diplomats are divided over whether it’s a false flag operation orchestrated by Russia to stoke anti-Western sentiment, an attack from Kiev, or a U.S a war by anti-women partisan groups. At a time when everyone is anticipating the Ukrainian counter-offensive and moves by Kremlin troops, with the backdrop of a Russia increasingly feeling the ramifications of its war in Ukraine, there is a common bottom line: the fear that Moscow will use the drone incident for a further offensive in Ukraine.
A Western diplomat stationed in Russia said the attack was “another step” by Moscow to set fire to its rhetoric about the Kiev government and that it was being used as a cover for a further escalation with new attacks in Ukraine Politicians and civilians will use targets. It will also use what happened to further shield itself and launch another repressive salvo against its citizens, while paving the way for a new mobilization, he claims. Although Russian state broadcasters have not made too much of a fuss about what happened, Security Council President Dmitry Medvedev is calling for the “elimination of [Volodímir] Zelensky and his clique.
These days are particularly delicate for the Kremlin, on the eve of the commemoration of the Red Army’s victory over the Nazis – Victory Day, May 9 – which Russia usually celebrates with great splendour, but is eagerly awaited this year. For now, Moscow authorities have banned the use of drones across the city, deployed new devices to monitor the sky and jammers to jam GPS signals.
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In the same week that the EU tried to 1 billion Russian-issues experts like Riddle Russia’s Mark Galeotti or Anton Barbashin claim that the incident was more than a false flag operation (an attack carried out with the intention of , to hold someone accountable and thus create the pretext for an escalation). the work of Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian groups.
The drone episode is also added to other recent events where authorship is also not clear. Like the assassination last August of Daria Dugina, daughter of the ultra-nationalist Aleksandr Dugin, whom Russia accuses Ukraine of, the assassination of the ultra-nationalist commentator Vladlen Tatarsky on April 2, or the attack on the writer and paramilitary Zajar Prilepin this Saturday. All three very similar events because of the goals and in a way because of the formula used.
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In addition, analysts point out, a good handful of acts of sabotage at trains, recruitment centers, airfields, warehouses and factories, which may be a mix of work being carried out by the Ukrainian intelligence services and Russian opposition groups, have recently been receiving more aid from abroad. This Sunday, Russian authorities gave assurances that they had foiled a drone attack on a military airfield in the center of the country.
What happened has exposed weaknesses in the heart of the Russian capital and is somewhat embarrassing for air defenses and for the Kremlin’s own protection, which is handled by a special security agency, the SVR. This agency is responsible for protecting President Vladimir Putin and other leaders. To accomplish its mission, it has drones and even a brigade of birds of prey that fly over the domes during the day to repel other birds that are damaging the building. Footage of the incident makes it unclear whether the drones actually exploded or were shot down over the Kremlin. “Whatever it is, Moscow will capitalize on it,” says a senior community source.
Video footage of a drone exploding near the dome of the Kremlin’s Senate building on May 3, 2023. OSTOROZHNO NOVOSTI (via Portal)
In Ukraine, Moscow-installed authorities in the occupied Zaporizhia region have ordered civilians in several cities to evacuate their homes. Although Ukrainian intelligence sources indicate that the movement is more likely due to preparations for the counter-offensive that Kiev is preparing than a response to the drone incident.
Meanwhile, NATO issued warnings this week that Russia, which is analyzing the Atlantic Alliance countries’ critical infrastructure systems, may be planning attacks on undersea cables vital to telecommunications and gas supplies. The risk is “significant,” said NATO Deputy Secretary General for Intelligence and Security, David Cattler. Moscow is stepping up patrols in the Atlantic, North Sea and around the Baltic Sea, and the alliance is investing increasing efforts in the coordination center to protect the essential submarine infrastructure it created in February and is now assigning more patrols to has boats.
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