This article was originally published in English
The decline in the birth rate and the greater chances of survival for older people have aged Italy's population so much that economists are worried about the country's future.
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The aging of the Italian population is beginning to affect the famous Italian “Dolce Vita”. The growing number of pensioners does not correspond to the number of newborns. Efforts by Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government to increase birth rates have so far failed to reverse the demographic trend.
According to the latest data from EurostatItaly is the oldest country in the European Union: half of the population currently has one Average age over 48 years. Italy, together with Portugal, has the Highest proportion of residents over 65 years oldcorresponds to 24%, i.e. around one in four.
This increase reflects a Trend at European level, in which the block as a whole has seen an increase in its average age (44.5 years). The number of older people now accounts for more than a fifth of the bloc's population.
“What is most significant, however, is the aging trend of the Italian population,” explains Cecilia Tomassini, professor of demography and social statistics at the University of Molise, to Euronews. “The proportion of people aged 80 years or older has increased to 7.7% of the population, a notable increase from 3.3% in 1991,” he adds.
“Essentially, the population has grown by 3.4% since 1991, The segment of people over 80 has more than doubled “But the Italian “Nonni” – very popular characters at home and abroad – are not the problem, Giovanni Lamura from the Italian National Institute of Health and Science on Aging tells Euronews.
“Making people live longer should be a goal on the political agenda of every country’s government,” he says. “The problem is that birth rates in Italy are low and we have fewer and fewer children,” he continues.
How has Italy aged so much?
The reason for the aging of the Italian population is simple: the number of deaths due to population aging far exceeds the number of births.
In the last 40 years The average number of children per family in Italy is less than 1.5, assures “Euronews” Alessandro Rosina, professor of demography and social statistics at the Università Cattolica di Milano. “The latest data is less than 1.24 per woman,” he adds.
A rate of 2 births is required per woman to maintain a stable population. This decline in birth rates began in the 1980s, according to Tomassini, although with occasional fluctuations.
“The Migration flows “We have only slowed down this aging process slightly,” he says. “Otherwise, their impact would have been much more pronounced.” However, there was a time when this negative balance was offset by one higher positive migration rate“That’s not the case anymore,” Tomassini said. “Consequently, the population decline in Italy is becoming more and more evident.”
The fact that older people live longer in Italy is actually a fact positive news, emphasizes Lamura. “People have been able to live longer thanks to favorable policies, generous pensions and a free health care system that allows even those who cannot afford it to receive health care,” he says.
But there is another side of the coin. Lamura points out The country has not invested as much in the younger generations as in previous generations. “Italy should do more to help young families financially, but has a huge GDP debt.” [140,6% de todo su PIB en septiembre de 2023] “This is under international observation and therefore we cannot afford to go further into debt with some new and generous family-friendly measures,” he emphasizes.
“People in Italy plan and dream for children and a family just like other Europeans.” What is missing are adequate guidelines that support the realization of these plans and dreams,” emphasizes Rosina.
“Italy has one of the highest average ages for parents having their first child [en Europa]mainly because Young people have difficulty entering the workforce and finding a permanent jobThey also have difficulty finding their own apartment.
Anyone who has children faces the challenge of balancing family and work in a country where there is a lack of both financial support and sufficient infrastructure for young parents and their children.
“In Italy, the birth of a child can mean a… worsening economic conditions of parentsas well as a complication of their lives from an organizational point of view, more than in other countries,” laments Rosina. “The country's limited policies to support young families send a negative message that a family does not add value to the family.” “It is a communal issue and not worthy of support,” he adds.
What future for Italy?
This is to be expected for Tomassini The aging of the Italian population and the decline in the birth rate will continue in the future. That is, “unless there is significant intervention like a mortality crisis or a new baby boom,” he says. “In the short term, migration may be an important variable that could influence population dynamics, although it may be politically sensitive.”
The government of Meloni He has made increasing the birth rate a priority of his government, but so far has failed to achieve concrete results. VAT on diapers and baby formula has been halved, but daycare centers remain expensive and hardly affordable for many.
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The country's biggest fear is that the already weak economic growth will continue to decline and that Italy will ultimately fail cannot cope with their pension and social systems. “If birth rates remain the same, Italy could only have 320,000 newborns in 25 years, with an increasingly unbalanced demographic structure,” warns Rosina.
“It is not a dystopian future, but simply the most likely scenario given the current dynamics. “If Italy does not follow the example of the best European policies in this area, the development and social sustainability of the country will be at risk in the coming decades,” he concludes.