There is a gap between public finances and those of Ukraine: what is the priority for Europe? Because when cornered, Meloni will be forced to make a decision. The Union is a tangle of contradictions.
In the election mood that pervades the entire Old Continent, at the end of the race, EU Commissioner Dombrovskis criticizes the maneuvers of the Italian government, while the German Chancellor calls his partners on the phone and calls on them to increase funds to support Kiev. However, without granting the separation of defense spending from the Stability Pact.
“And if the conditions do not change – warns Foreign Minister Tajani – we will not be able to do more.” Two weeks before the extraordinary European Council, while Ukraine is under Russian fire, the economic rigidity of some capitals is directing a barrage against Western principles that threatened by Moscow.
The last time defense chief Crosetto met the head of German business, he greeted him with a sad joke: “If Putin invades our country because we didn't defend ourselves, then I hope we're not stupid enough to leave him. “ the accounts in order”. They say that Meloni tried to play along with Macron, knowing full well that “we cannot afford to change the budget only in relation to Ukraine.” Even for them – despite their wishes, Zelensky to help – it would be economically and politically difficult to counter the dangers of the palace and the unpopularity in the country.
It is the common problem of almost all governments in the Union, which, according to a study by the renowned German Institute for Economic Affairs in Kiel, recorded a slowdown in support for Kiev: between August and October 2023 there was a 90% reduction in commitments compared to 2022 .And the burden has largely fallen on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Eastern European countries. Another part of the Kiel Institute study developed by Ispi and published by the newspaper La Ragione makes it clear that the closer the states are to Moscow's borders, the higher the funding for Ukraine: In Lithuania, the annual per capita Spending at 168 euros, 163 in Finland, 156 in Sweden, 136 in Germany. Only 14 in France and 12 in Italy.
The perception of the Russian threat therefore appears to be the decisive factor for donations. If only household rules prevent us from acting differently in certain cases. If not in Paris, where Berlin focuses its criticism, then definitely in Rome. Proof of this are Crosetto's curses during a recent meeting: “Ukraine's wound has not healed and now the pus is spreading.” What is meant is the international domino effect: from the Hamas pogrom in Israel to the war in Gaza, the tensions in the Red sea, the missile launches between Iran and Pakistan and the Chinese encirclement campaign on Taiwan.
The defense minister complained that “we have financial problems even for the restoration of our supplies.” When budget freedom prevailed, the Conte government had committed within NATO to increase spending on this sector to 2%. Now we're not even at 1.5%. 11 billion are missing to reach the goal. And if Biden turns a blind eye today, what would happen tomorrow if Trump came back: Would he ask us to leave the Atlantic Pact? A possible re-election of the tycoon is the variable that causes “fear” in European law firms, according to a diplomatic cable from Berlin: “The protection of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine is closely linked to European and European relations.” German Interests”.
For this reason, Scholz will want to beat Brussels, but without taking on the economic difficulties of others. The Ukrainian (emergency) problem and the European (structural) problem are parallel paths that risk not overlapping. Unless von der Leyen finds a compromise solution. A well-known Italian minister recalls that “the 50 billion reconstruction plan is being discussed in favor of Kiev: since this money is currently useless due to the ongoing conflict, part of it could be used for armaments.”
Negotiations in the Union are always complex. The Houthis dominate the Red Sea, and Europe has not yet agreed on the naval expedition to be sent to these strategic waters.