That could include direct attacks on US election infrastructure, among a wide range of options, the sources said.
There is no evidence that Putin made a decision to interfere in upcoming elections or that he favored candidates, the sources said. Hacking the electoral infrastructure wouldn’t be easy either, because the electoral systems in the US are so diffuse and decentralized.
But while Putin has previously been less willing to directly intervene in state electoral systems — opting instead to order scans of voter registration databases and conduct lobbying campaigns to cast doubt on the legitimacy of elections — intelligence officials believe Putin may now be ready to go further to go than previous interference efforts.
“If we put pressure and Ukraine puts pressure, he will certainly expand the options that he would consider,” said a source briefed on the intelligence community’s assessment. “So what could he do? I don’t think that was a real conclusion. Just a consideration of a wide range of things.”
Another source familiar with the intelligence information said that one of the options could be to “attack the electoral infrastructure directly,” which “reflects a change in Putin’s risk tolerance, as we saw with his invasion of Ukraine.”
A US official clarified that the assessments were not based on direct knowledge.
“We have no direct information that Russia is trying to attack state, local or electoral systems more directly than before, but we certainly anticipate the possibility. We will continue to actively share any information about increased threats with state and local officials as we receive it,” the official told CNN.
Putin more willing to take risks
Intelligence agencies have made understanding Putin’s mindset a priority since the invasion began, sources familiar with internal deliberations told CNN. Raw assessments have pointed to his increasingly erratic behavior, and US officials believe Putin’s anger at Russia’s failures in Ukraine makes him more willing to take risks — something his advisers, who officials say don’t tell him having told the truth, having done so does not prepare him for it.
The Associated Press reported Saturday that Putin could use US support for Ukraine as an excuse to meddle in US elections.
According to another US official familiar with the briefing, lawmakers were briefed last week by intelligence officials on Putin’s calculus of potential interference.
The briefing confirmed that should Putin shift his focus to harming outside of Ukraine, this year’s US midterm elections are a possible target for Russian activists, according to the US official. Russian actors also tried to influence the 2016 and 2020 elections.
The briefing did not suggest that there was specific intelligence information that said the official said the Kremlin would be targeting US elections, but that elections were one of several areas the Russian government is targeting in response to the war in the US Ukraine could influence.
“If Putin feels cornered, he can direct his cyber powers in all sorts of directions,” the US official said, adding that officials are on heightened alert ahead of the US midterm elections this year.
While it would be difficult for Russia to manipulate voter counts, another source noted that Russia would not have to change many votes “to compromise the security of the entire voting enterprise.”
Even if Russia’s hacking efforts didn’t affect the outcome at all, sowing chaos and distrust in electoral systems could be enough of a win, another source said.
When asked about the assessments, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
“Our Election Threats Executive continues to lead the intelligence community’s efforts against foreign threats to US elections,” ODNI spokeswoman Nicole de Haay said in a statement to CNN.
Elections are not the only goal Russia might have in mind. The US government has begun warning of the possibility of Russia attempting to attack critical US infrastructure and is urging private sector owners and operators to be prepared.
“All companies, all owners and operators of critical infrastructure must assume that the Russians are contemplating disruptive cyber activities, preparing and evaluating options, as the President said,” said Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told CNN late last month.