But it is crucial to think about what would happen if he did. This would not be a “victory”.
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In the United States, we welcome Ukrainian resistance under the defiant leadership of President Vladimir Zelensky, but we have not engaged in military action for one reason above all others: on Sunday, Putin put his country’s nuclear deterrent forces on alert. Hair rose on the neck of every NATO official because of Putin’s implicit threat of nuclear revenge. Fiona Hill, a former senior director of European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council, told Politico that when she served in the White House, Putin appeared to have threatened to use nuclear force during a debate. with President Donald Trump.
When in trouble, Russia and its Soviet predecessors have always used threats of nuclear war. This sword of Damocles is causing fear at home and abroad, among officials and the public, and is slowing down the decision-making cycle of the United States and its allies. The knee-jerk reaction refers to the old Cold War paradigm: We must do nothing more to help the Ukrainians not to provoke World War III.
When people are confronted with something they have never seen before, they go back to what they know or introduce frameworks that feel more comfortable than insecurity. The jargon of nuclear deterrence theory as “mutually guaranteed destruction” fills social media broadcasts, and old theories about Soviet foreign policy lead to a debate about American policy.
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As a student at the U.S. Military Academy who was exposed to the full force of Cold War dogma until the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, I can tell you that nothing I learned in those hours matched that. which I see from Putin and Russia today. Putin should not be treated like the Politburo of the 1960s. Technology and money have transformed Russia over the past 30 years and have been key vectors for Putin’s rise to power. He lost his grip on both in just seven days.
The West is convinced that if it refrains from further military action, Putin will refrain from destroying Ukraine. For more than two decades as president of Russia, Putin has been adamant in his desire to reclaim former Soviet territory, while persistently lying about his willingness to use force to achieve his goals. For Putin, the lives of Russian soldiers are cheap. Each war he won was followed by another in his quest to be remembered in history as the one that restored Russia’s fame as a world power. What if Putin thinks he will lose in Ukraine? A loss there could lead to the end of his rule – but I am willing to bet that he will not accept his place in history as just another Russian leader who lost to the West.
Take a month forward today and think about the situation in Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainians – probably hungry, understaffed, deprived of air force and tired of prolonged bombing – can hold the line in the carved Lviv or Kyiv, with the West applauding them while perhaps helping foreign fighters cross the border. Inside Russia, the reality will overtake Russia’s domestic disinformation, with probably 10,000 or more Russian men disappearing to the front lines and crippling sanctions leading to unrest.
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Russian oligarchs and Kremlin leaders already know that their president has gone too far with his hand, and Putin may need a quick victory in Ukraine. Why wouldn’t he use a nuclear strike to bring Ukraine to its knees and force the West to yield to its demands? The question that should terrify us is not only whether Putin will use nuclear weapons if the West does something, but also whether Putin will use them even if the West does nothing.
There is no obstacle for a madman, especially one who has already lost much of his wealth and probably his grip on reality. Reports indicate that Putin is isolated and angry; images from his meetings with foreign leaders and aides reinforce this notion. He publicly dressed the head of his foreign intelligence in a staged show and at each meeting was positioned strangely far from the others present. Rumors of deteriorating health, impossible to verify, have been circulating over the past few years, which may explain the intensity of his efforts to regain the historic seat of the Russian Empire in Kyiv. Normally, these rumors would be dismissed, but Western leaders have expressed concern that something is wrong. “I wish I could share more,” tweeted Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), “But for now I can say it’s pretty obvious that something is wrong with [Putin]”
The West must help repel the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but that could mean providing a strategy for Putin’s exit that falls somewhere between exposing him to global humiliation and a coup in Russia – both of which could lead to unprecedented scenarios. involving nuclear strikes.
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The Kremlin is using interstate diplomacy as a foil for its military maneuvers. Putin or his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, are not presenting options during the talks, but demands that they know will not be met, replenishing supplies and maneuvering their military forces all the time.
I do not believe that the Russian people approve of the violence inflicted on Ukraine, and as their sons disappear in battle, anti-war protests in the cities will increase. The information, which relates specifically to the Russian people in Russia, offers an opportunity for the West to de-escalate the situation. The Kremlin is feeding the Russians with a constant stream of misinformation to justify the invasion of Ukraine, but do people believe Putin’s stories? Interviews in Russia show that they are increasingly disappointed. The West must use all available digital means to send the truth about the unnecessary violence that Putin has committed.
For years, the Kremlin has sought to expand its propaganda and misinformation in Western democracies; it is time for the West to return the favor by spreading the truth in Russia. NATO and the United States do not need to produce propaganda; instead, they and their populations can simply act as a relay for truthful reports and videos on the ground that allow Russian mothers to find out what happened to their Russian sons.
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The United States and its allies must obviously avoid triggering a nuclear exchange, but we must also be prepared for the possibility that such an outcome may not be under our control. Economic sanctions may work too well. Russian oligarchs displaced from Western estates in their native dachas can act collectively to pursue regime change against an increasingly irrational and isolated leader. The West must aggressively assess what Russia’s civil war or coup may look like and dramatically increase communication with Russia’s most Western-minded businessmen in parallel talks to better understand the risk of a political collapse in Moscow.
And above all, we need to think about what Putin would do to keep his winning streak. I suspect it’s everything and everything.