JIM WATSON / AFP
Against the backdrop of the freezing cold, the Republican primaries begin this Monday, January 15th in the United States as usual with the caucus in Iowa. A first election in which Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite (Donald Trump supporters with signs, January 14, 2024 in Iowa).
UNITED STATES – 295 days before the presidential election, things are starting to get serious. In a divided, tense America where political violence continues to reach new heights, caucuses and other primaries begin this Monday, January 15th. And on the Republican Party side, former President Donald Trump already seems untouchable.
Traditionally, the nomination race for the general election begins in Iowa, in the heart of the Midwest. With six Republican candidates still in the race, three in particular are drawing attention: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once considered Trump's successor but whose campaign went “shit”; Nikki Haley, a former Trump ambassador to the United Nations who could have a real role; and finally Donald Trump, who is looking to get back into business after being kicked out of the White House by Joe Biden in 2020.
Despite its small population and the organization of caucus voting – voters who are members of the party gather in a public place, debate and then vote for their favorite before everyone else – Iowa is proving to be a strategic state. Because of its position on the calendar, the outcome can breathe new life into a difficult campaign, bring an unexpected candidate to the fore, or completely destroy an ambition.
Thirty-five
Trump largely dominates the polls for the Iowa caucus, which will take place on January 15, 2024.
And while Trump has done relatively little campaigning in the state, he remains unattainable, at least according to the polls, unlike his primary opponents who are out for survival. As you can see aboveAccording to benchmark poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the former president has more than 51% voting intentions, compared to 17.3% for Nikki Haley and 16.1% for Ron DeSantis.
“Even if you choose and then die, it’s worth it.”
The local Iowa newspaper Des Moines Register also published its reference data confirming the former president's huge lead: 48% of voters would intend to vote for him (-3 points compared to December), compared to 20% for Haley ( +4 points). ) and 16% for DeSantis (-3 points).
For Trump, it's not even about winning this caucus anymore. By flying over it, you'll write your name a little deeper in American political history and break a new record: that of the largest points difference between the Republican winner and his runner-up during a caucus. This record currently stands at 12 points.
However, American political commentators warn and remind that Iowa can sometimes bring surprises. This year is expected to be even worse than others, as a snowstorm hits the state and temperatures drop below freezing. They are expected to drop well below 0 degrees, all the way down to -30 degrees.
I'm not sure the bad weather puts Trump at a disadvantage, given his voters' continued motivation to vote. Even if the older ones give up, he has managed to attract a certain number of young people who can express themselves. On Sunday, the real estate mogul did everything he could to encourage his followers to come out: “Go vote, even if you’re sick as a dog!” According to a New York Times reporter present at a meeting, he then joked: “Yourself If you choose and then die, it's worth it.” »
Nikki Haley could cause a surprise
The actual match in Iowa is actually between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. The latter, which has been struggling for several months and has focused its efforts on this first state by visiting each of the 99 counties, has just fallen to third place in opinion polls. A poor result on Monday evening will likely force him out of the race.
Nikki Haley continues to gain momentum. So if Iowa appears to be decided, the former South Carolina governor could pull off an upset in next week's New Hampshire primary, where she is just 11 points behind Trump and his 41%.
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New Hampshire primary polls, January 23, 2024.
If the former U.S. representative to the United Nations manages to stand out in Iowa and then New Hampshire, momentum could well build in the primaries in South Carolina, the state she led from 2011 to 2017. She expects that in the coming weeks she will recognize her “momentum” (understand the momentum from which she benefits) and become the only credible alternative to Donald Trump.
And on the democratic side? For the first time, the caucus is not being organized at the same time as the Republican caucus. In fact, there will be no caucus at all because the party intends to abandon this voting method, which it considers unequal. However, voters have been able to vote by mail since January 12th and the result will not be announced until March 5th, the day of Super Tuesday. However, the tension is not at its peak as the only candidate who can seriously claim the nomination remains current President Joe Biden.
In this situation, it is difficult not to witness a second duel between Trump and Biden in November, four years later. Another winner this time? This is where all the tension lies.
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