Marina and Artem go underground for classes three days a week. Their school is a prefabricated cabin installed in the Kharkiv subway to protect children from Russian attacks on what was once Ukraine's second-largest city. In the south, in reclaimed Kherson, the government has erected armored cabins on several streets to provide some protection from the hail of artillery that the Kremlin relishes firing into the city where it suffered its worst defeat in the fall of 2022. In Ukraine, a number of transitional solutions have achieved a certain level of durability. Now that Western support appears to be waning and some doubt it will last; As the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to achieve its desired goals and Russia consolidated its positions and attempted to gain ground on the eastern flank, Ukraine was staring into the abyss of a long war.
“Nobody knows when it will end,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted last Tuesday. “Even experts, our commanders and our Western partners, who say this is a years-long war, don’t know this,” the leader noted in his annual press conference, in which he answered the question of whether Ukraine was a resounding “No “ answered loses the war. Having failed to achieve his goal of destroying Ukraine's sovereignty, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin is now struggling to take over parts of battle-ravaged terrain and gain a foothold to improve his positions and launch new major attacks.
Moscow has not given up on its goals, and several US intelligence reports suggest that the decline in Western support – particularly economic but also diplomatic – could lead to the collapse of Ukraine's defense capability. “The current situation is not a stable stagnation, the current unstable equilibrium could tilt in any direction because of the decisions made in the West,” notes the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that monitors the situation on the ground daily .
This Western support is beginning to wane. Added to this, as analyst Maria Avdeeva points out, is the prospect of political turmoil in the United States, where infighting (particularly from Republicans) is leading to the freezing of around 50 billion euros pledged to Ukraine and where in the fall Elections will take place in the White House, where a (re)landing of the Republican Donald Trump cannot be ruled out. The populist former president has not only questioned Joe Biden's Ukraine policy, but also has a complicated relationship with the country.
In the European Union, which handed Kiev its biggest victory in months by opening accession negotiations with the country, leaders are looking for a formula to introduce a 50 billion euro economic lifeline to be paid between 2024 and 2027 The Hungarian Viktor Orbán vetoed it a week ago. “The money will definitely arrive, there are several creative solutions such as Plan B and even Plan C,” says a senior community source, who, however, acknowledges that the delay represents a stone-cold disaster for the invaded country Russia.
A group of people in traditional costumes sing Christmas carols in the Kiev subway on Monday.VALENTYN OGIRENKO (Portal)
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American funds are more flexible and can be used to finance military equipment, but the European lifeline is aimed at covering current expenses, explains MP Maria Mezentseva from the Servant of the People party (Zelenskyy's party), who chairs the National Affairs Committee directs. Europeans from the Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and who are confident that help is coming. The EU designed the new instrument as a long-term security commitment to keep the country afloat. While High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell tries to uncover new funds for military materials and get Ukraine to receive the millions of rounds of artillery that member states promised in March. There will also be elections to the European Parliament in June, and Ukraine will also be part of the election campaign.
The need for funds is the concrete element. But there are other, more intangible flights flying across the country. At the same time, one of the most shared memes of the moment shows, with the usual Ukrainian irony, a group of wolves trying to open the door to 2024 from a distance and with a stick. The meme reads “Help me sir.”
Slow progress at the front
With the failure of the counteroffensive – little ground was retaken and progress was made slowly, a few meters a day – and the lack of public objectives in the short or medium term that this operation offered – not only for the Ukrainians There is currently no visible turning point for the allies. “There is fear of a halt to the war, but also of new major attacks,” says Avdeeva. The prospect of joining the community club is also perceived as a long-term gain, the analyst continued. And Ukraine is looking for closer targets.
At the same time, in the background noise and taking advantage of the unrest in Ukraine, doubts about Western support and the fact that the focus is now on Israel's war against Hamas, the Kremlin announces its willingness to hold peace talks to freeze the conflict now that it is there He controls 20% of the territory of Ukraine. Moscow's troops have suffered heavy losses. A Western intelligence source warns that the insinuations Putin is making – which were also reported by the New York Times through several senior Russian and American officials – while he reiterates that his intentions and military interests have not changed, “are one way “to sow doubt and possible fatigue”. . Both in Ukraine and in the West.
Soldiers of the 4th Separate Tank Brigade prepare to fire on the Kupiansk Front, Dec. 24. Vyacheslav Ratynsky (Portal)
In Dnipro, in the center of the country, a certain normality has become established. Restaurants and cafes are open. And full. A Christmas tree was put up on one of the large boulevards. At the same time, a large proportion of citizens are exhausted. There is tiredness, a certain sadness. But there is no such thing as defeatism. Several recent surveys suggest that the population is unwilling to give up territory.
“Perhaps it is because we very quickly forget much worse moments that we have experienced, like last winter,” notes Serhii Moliasov, holding a woolen hat in his hand. It's cold, but at the moment the winter is milder than in the past. In addition, air defenses reinforced with Western help have prevented the Kremlin from reaching energy infrastructure and using the cold card this year, as it did last December, when many had to spend weeks without light or heating and it was difficult to get a generator . The last Christmas – this year Ukraine celebrates this holiday mainly on December 24th, moving closer to the Western tradition – took place in the dark in Dnipro and many other cities.
At the front, many soldiers are completely exhausted. “It's like living the same day every day. Over and over again,” says Maksim, who fights in an infantry brigade in the mud of Donbass. “But withdrawal is not an option, it is an existential question for us here and our families back home,” he said, speaking in Kostiantinivka, a few kilometers from Bakhmut, the town that fell into Russian hands at the start of the summer , smoking out a cigarette. The turnover is low and there are very few new volunteers. Given the shortage of recruits – there are drafts in certain areas, there are also controversies over how they were carried out and cases of bribery to avoid them – Zelensky has hinted that he may order a large-scale mobilization. According to the Ukrainian president, the army needs half a million new soldiers.
Draft
The decision could cause great tension and anger with the government and the president, whose popularity has fallen while there are certain political divisions and an opposition that wants to show itself. However, the decision has not yet been made, emphasized Zelensky. It is also possible, a Western intelligence source points out, that the mobilization does arrive but that it is smaller than the number the president has put on the table to contain the response.
Two Ukrainian snipers near the front line in the Donetsk region.WIACHESLAV RATYNSKYI (Portal)
Ukraine today lives in two realities. That of the front and the trenches. The fight with drones and the exchange of artillery on the Kupiansk Front. In places like Avdiivka, hand-to-hand combat almost breaks out. That of the raft ferries on the Kherson front, where some soldiers complain about a lack of fuel. And another, in the capital, in the vibrant cities of the West or even in the always villainous Odessa, the pearl of the Black Sea and the country's most important port. These two realities also mean, explains psychologist Oleksandra Bolshakova, that the threat is less immediately tangible for some, as they perceive it as something more distant rather than a matter of physical survival. And that also influences recruitment, believes Bolshakova.
The balance is complicated. Citizens emphasize that the ultimate goal is to regain the territory of Ukraine up to the internationally recognized borders, d year. Large-scale invasion. But there are those who demand a closer horizon in order to be able to row further. The government, meanwhile, has stressed that it will not put concrete targets on the table again, as in the failed counter-offensive in the spring, as this could damage the fight. “It's normal, we are at war, but this uncertainty, not knowing what will happen in a month, a week, occupies your mind,” concludes Moliasov.
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