Status: 04/03/2023 4:58 pm
In recent weeks, the West has been delivering new weapons in support of Ukraine’s expected spring offensive. Can they provide decisive advantages when trying to retake occupied territories?
It remains unclear when the Ukrainian spring offensive that many have been waiting for will actually begin. The West debated and hesitated for a long time – in January, Germany, other European countries and the US finally announced that they would send war tanks to Ukraine.
Now there are 18 German “Leopard 2” tanks, with ammunition and spare parts packages and with crews trained in Germany. Other European countries have already delivered “Leopards” or are planning to do so. Altogether there are at least two battalions, more than 60 according to the Ukrainian count. There are also at least 14 British “Challenger” tanks and later also 31 US “Abrams” main battle tanks.
Great expectations of the “Leopard”
Expectations from these modern weapons are huge and there is high hope that they can turn the tide of war in a possible Ukrainian offensive in the spring. The “Leopard 2” is considered one of the best main battle tanks in the world. He is very agile and can shoot and hit from great distances even while driving.
Although it is heavy, it is light compared to the armored “Challenger 2” and “Abrams” – an advantage in terms of mobility. In addition, the “Leopard” is easier to repair. The crew is better protected than on Russian “T” models.
Cold War “Marder”
But is “Leopard 2” a “miracle weapon”, as many think? “No,” says military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady: “There are no magic bullets.” And Christian Mölling, security expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, adds: The “Leopard” could have “a door-opening function” in a spring offensive, but the enemy could prepare for it with tank barriers, for example. example. “Leopards” can also burn. According to Mölling, every weapon system is vulnerable.
The German tank pack also includes 40 “Marder” infantry fighting vehicles. They date back to the Cold War era, but have been modernized several times and have proven to be used in Afghanistan. In addition to the German “Marders”, the US also promised armored vehicles of the Bradley type.
Infantry fighting vehicles have a smaller gun and weaker armor than main battle tanks. However, its crew also includes infantrymen who can fight both from the tank and alongside the tank.
long range missile system
Ukrainians also have high hopes for a counter-offensive on the US missile system “GLSDB” (“Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb”). It has a long range of around 150 kilometers and is considered difficult to intercept. It is not clear whether the Americans have already delivered it to Ukraine. A few days ago, Russia claimed to have shot down such a missile. This information cannot be verified.
Ukraine has long had the US HIMARS system. These missiles have high accuracy and a range of 80 kilometers. HIMARS had already forced Russian forces to move their weapons and ammunition depots inland. With GLSDB, things could get even more difficult for Russian supplies.
“Extremely important” pioneer device for the offensive
The so-called pioneering device, which is used to promote the progress of one’s own troops, remove obstacles and hinder enemy movement, causes less public attention. This is “extremely important material” for an offensive, according to Gady, especially since the Ukrainian armed forces have a deficit here. This can cause the offensive to progress more slowly.
The federal government has already delivered three Dachs tanks, and more are to come. They can make impassable areas passable and can be used for clearing, dredging and reclamation work.
26 Biber bridge-laying tanks and 42 mine-clearing tanks are also on the German delivery list. They are crucial for crossing waters, many of them in Ukraine, during an offensive, or for clearing recovered areas of mines.
“Too late and poorly equipped”
But can the new weapons be a “game changer” in the expected Ukrainian offensive? One of the prerequisites for this would be that they are available in sufficient numbers. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zalushnyi, has long provided accurate information about what is needed: at least 300 main battle tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 artillery systems. Numbers that Ukraine is far from reaching in its current state.
Molling also criticizes: “The West overslept to equip Ukraine in time. If we had started delivering tanks and training Ukrainian soldiers in the autumn, they could have attacked now.”
Difficult to predict the outcome of the offensive
Experts agree that weapons alone never determine the success or failure of an offensive, however modern or effective they may be. Other factors play an equally important role, such as combat spirit, the quality of training, the organization of troops, weather conditions and the supply of fuel, spare parts and, above all, ammunition.
Gady estimates that the Ukrainians would need 150,000 to 200,000 heavy artillery shells per month for an offensive. The decisive factor for success, however, is the “supreme discipline”, the “combined arms struggle”, according to Gady. The objective is to coordinate the use of the various types of weapons with their different strengths as effectively as possible.
Both experts, Gady and Mölling, do not dare to predict the outcome of the offensive. A war “always offers many surprises, it is complex and difficult”, says Mölling. Finally, one should not underestimate the adaptability of the Russian military.