As the election year begins in the United States, it is becoming increasingly clear that the election will take place under the constant threat of violence.
It's difficult to find common ground in Donald Trump's political discourse, but the violence and intimidation is.
This omnipresence of violence will poison the political climate in the United States this election year, and it risks going bad.
A recurring theme
It is not new that violence occupies a predominant place in Donald Trump's political universe. In 2016, violent incidents occurred frequently at gatherings.
This glorification of violence is also evident in his apologies for police brutality, his calls to open fire on migrants at the border or his calls for retailers to shoot shoplifters immediately.
His speech not only glorifies violence, but also normalizes it. In his eyes, the rioters who abused the Capitol guards on January 6, 2021 were patriots whom he will hasten to replace as president again.
Add to this Trump's tendency to dehumanize his opponents, whom he shamelessly describes as vermin to be eliminated, and we have the recipe for an explosive cocktail.
Stochastic terrorism
No wonder anyone involved with the Trump lawsuits needs special police protection. The threat of violence hanging over them is real.
This type of situation has a name: stochastic terrorism, a climate of terror based on confused, radicalized and armed individuals who can act at any time.
If Trump's speech is designed not to cross the threshold of explicit incitement to violence, the signals he sends will clearly be perceived that way by his fanatical supporters, and it is only chance that decides where and when one of them They believe it is justified to eliminate this “vermin” that, according to the object of his cult, he wants to target.
January 6, 2021 was no coincidence. Trump knew full well that the armed radicals he addressed would take his call to fight literally.
Intimidation and resignation
The climate of intimidation created by this “stochastic terrorism” will profoundly impact this pivotal year for American democracy.
Potential witnesses or jurors are refraining from attending trials against Trump out of fear for their safety. Such fears also risk complicating election staff recruitment, particularly after the misadventures of Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman in Georgia.
This climate of terror is leading to resignation among Republican elected officials. During the second vote on Trump's impeachment in 2021, several Republicans convinced of the ex-president's guilt backed away due to threats from fanatical Trumpists. Over time, this fear gave way to resignation.
And it probably won't end on Election Day. Trump is already raising the specter of violence in the event of defeat, just as he is threatening to respond to demonstrations of discontent with unprecedented severity if he wins.