Lack of food, fuel, abandonment of vehicles, loss of aircraft, death of soldiers … A week after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, it is clear that the result is mixed for the Muscovite at the General Staff. His neighbor’s initial invasion would even turn out to be a surprising tactical and strategic mistakeexperts say.
These American specialists from the Russian army say that they were surprised by the poor management of the campaign, with sunken invasion columns, hundreds of apparently lost Russian armor and the Kremlin’s air force prevented by the Ukrainian defense from controlling the skies.
“When you fuck him in two or three weeks, I can understand that,” said Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp think tank. “But when you stumble on the doorstep, when you enter the house, you have another problem.”
“It’s just a disaster, all the time.”
Experts from the Pentagon and the private sector were expecting the military of Russian President Vladimir Putin to quickly destroy Ukraine’s ability to retaliate, undermining the command of 200,000 Ukrainian troops, destroying missile defenses and destroying Kyiv’s air force. None of this happened in the first days of the battle. And although there is no reliable estimate of the number of Russian soldiers killed, wounded or captured, it appears to be much higher than expected.
“It was a colossal intelligence failure that greatly underestimated the Ukrainian resistance, and the military execution was horrific.”, Michael Vickers, former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, explained this week at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “His main attack was insufficient. He was torn to pieces. His intelligence elements were captured, the columns were destroyed,” he added. “It’s just a disaster, all the time.”
“Something is wrong with Russia”
The Russians also failed to quickly seize an airport near Kyiv and detain it, sAccording to military experts from the Scowcroft Center of the Atlantic Council. The airport was probably too damaged in the battles to be used in a plan to invade Kyiv, these experts said. In addition, they added, “the losses of Russian planes and helicopters are surprisingly large and harmful,” as they failed to destroy the Ukrainian air defenses.
Another surprise: the limited and ineffective deployment of weapons of electronic warfare, which analysts expect to play a decisive role in the attack on the means of communication of the Ukrainians. Scott Boston also points out that the Ukrainians have continued to use their Turkish Bayraktar drones to destroy Russian forces. “If they are hit by Turkish drones once or twice, fine,” he said. “If they are hit more than once or twice, something is wrong with the Russian side.
Improper logistics
For Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, the Russians do not appear to have coordinated well “Their significant and diverse capabilities did not control the logistics of the invasion.“Initially, we have indications that although they have complex combined weapons capabilities, they are not necessarily fully integrated,” he added from logistics.
“We see abandoned vehicles. We see problems with maintenance, not only with fuel but also with food.”stunned John Kirby on Wednesday. Scott Boston, who has participated in high-level military simulations focused on Russian forces, says there are signs that many of these forces are young people, insufficiently trained for this type of conflict and that they probably did not know they were going to war. He also seems to have no idea what the troops are trying to do by invading Ukraine.
Russia is far from offside
However, none of the experts see the Russians out of the game. Their military offensive is stalled, but it could allow it to solve its logistical problems, John Kirby said. On the contrary, experts fear it Vladimir Putin’s disappointment makes him deploy all the power of his artillery, missiles and air force on the Ukrainian population with a devastating effect.
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