CNN –
As the world prepares to mark the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine this week, Europe faces some powerful questions about the war that unexpectedly broke out on its borders – and how it will proceed over the next 12 months becomes.
Perhaps the most important of these questions is: How long can such exhaustive financial support for Ukraine be practically sustained?
This idea is not new, but it is increasingly being repeated privately in some parts of the civil service. It also reflects several current grim truths.
The war has been stalled for some time and last week Ukraine was forced to withdraw from the key city of Avdiivka after months of bitter fighting, in its worst defeat since the fall of Bakhmut in May.
The United States' much-needed money is stuck as it has passed the Senate but awaits approval from the House of Representatives. The unity between the European Union (EU) and NATO is faltering, with almost every major decision being postponed and threatened with a veto.
There are no serious Western voices that want to abandon Kiev, but there is no denying that the more bills there are, the more fatigue there is.
(Valentyn Ogirenko/Portal)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – the EU remains an important ally of Ukraine and provides billions in funding.
According to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker, the EU and its regional allies have spent more than $100 billion to fund Ukraine's defense efforts since the crisis began.
Earlier this month, EU leaders agreed on a $54 billion package for Ukraine through 2027. The United Kingdom, arguably the most important security player in the region, has also given Ukraine more than $15 billion since 2022 committed The US has spent $66 billion, with another $60 billion in the pipeline.
While the West's strong support for Ukraine since 2022 has surprised many in the diplomatic world, fatigue is growing as the war drags on.
With no end to the conflict in sight, competition for political attention in the Middle East, as well as domestic political concerns stemming from inflation-driven cost-of-living crises around the world, spending large sums on Ukraine could become a politically difficult stomach for governments.
Political pressures on spending will become more visible when European Parliament elections are held in June, as will national polls in several countries, including the United Kingdom, a key Ukraine ally.
European officials need only look at the difficulties US President Joe Biden is having with his own Ukraine package to see the real impact of funding a costly foreign war when it comes into direct contact with domestic politics.
(Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images)
Zelensky during a visit to the United Kingdom, where he presented Parliament with a helmet from one of Ukraine's most successful pilots with the inscription “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it.”
Adding to these unfortunate distractions is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year.
Trump has not made his Ukraine policy clear, beyond his claim that he could end the war within 24 hours. The former president's anti-NATO rhetoric, his general disdain for European institutions and his strange admiration for Putin are well known.
While no one knows what another Trump presidency might mean specifically, it is plausible to imagine a worst-case scenario for Ukraine in which it loses momentum on the ground as the new owner of the White House decides that America has already spent enough.
This is an alarming prospect for European officials, who already believe Putin is meddling and trying to wait out the West.
This is where the next twelve months will be crucial for Ukraine's European allies. It is obviously in the interests of continental Europe that Putin does not win this war – there are very few who would disagree with this opinion.
So it's crucial, officials say, that no matter what happens in America, Europeans keep their noses down and keep spending, no matter how hard it may seem.
In the run-up to the US presidential election, the question will inevitably arise of what happens to European security without America. And while it is true that Ukrainian security is directly linked to broader European security, the immediate question of how to support Kiev is slightly different from Europe's long-term goal of greater security independence from DC.
Thomas Peter/Portal
The aftermath of a Russian attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine.
Can Europe continue to finance Ukraine if the US withdraws its financial support?
Most officials argue that this is possible. It would certainly be difficult, but possible. “The EU is very good at raising funds and there are tools it has not used yet,” a NATO official told CNN.
The official said Brussels should begin using the funds tied up in frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine in the next 12 months. “While this money cannot legally be used to purchase weapons, it can be used to cover compensation costs, freeing up funds for weapons from EU and national budgets,” they said.
Diplomatic voices focused on the world outside Europe are raising their eyebrows at this. Some fear that setting a precedent for using frozen assets to raise money for wars abroad could give countries like China the green light to do the same in its internal regional struggles. Beijing introduced a new law last year that makes it easier to do similar things with foreign assets inside China.
The thornier question is whether Europe could provide Kiev with the weapons it needs to win the war without American support.
The answer to that would be no. Europe simply does not currently have the production capacity necessary to independently serve Ukraine in the next 12 months.
But Western diplomats are optimistic that arming Ukraine fits perfectly with Europe's urgent efforts to reduce its dependence on America.
2nd Lt. Jarvis Mace/7th Army Training Command/U.S. Army
Task Force Thunder, 155th Armored Brigade Combat Team, Mississippi Army National Guard, assumed command of the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine mission under the 7th Army Training Command (7ATC) from Task Force Bowie, 39th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Arkansas Army National Guard, on Jan. 5, 2024. Led by U.S. European Command, U.S. Army Europe and Africa, and Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, 7ATC leads the training and is supported and supported by a variety of other organizations from across the U.S. Army. This training for the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been carried out in Germany since April 2022.
The US Army is under increasing pressure as it foots the bill for supporting Ukraine
Officials point to a recent deal brokered by NATO in which European countries agreed to buy 1,000 missiles from American companies to be built in a new German factory.
Almost everyone agrees that Europe needs to buy more weapons and have a security policy that is not so dependent on the USA. Achieving that doesn't have to come at America's expense, and winning lucrative contracts for U.S. companies is one way to ensure everyone wins.
Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is a travesty that has needlessly cost lives. If something positive is to come from this, then it must be that Europe finally becomes capable of defending itself and working together with its old ally.
And for what it's worth, the vast majority of Western officials believe that if Europe can spend the next year getting ready to fight, it will be much easier to keep a future President Trump on side.