I'm not sure Quebecers or other Canadians will remain calm for long about the wave of migration they're facing, particularly in asylum applications.
In 2022, Quebec received 58,905 asylum applications. In 2023 the number had risen to 65,570. At this rate, refugees will make up more than 10% of Quebec's population in 10 years.
Ottawa may say that some refugees are leaving Quebec, but the opposite is also true: refugees are leaving other provinces to live in Quebec. Quebec receives 45% of all refugees from Canada, while 20% of the Canadian population lives there.
The current arrival rate is unsustainable for aid organizations, infrastructure and institutions. Climate change and global political upheaval are likely to cause the number of refugees to increase significantly in the coming years.
In order to limit the growing influx of refugees, the easiest first step is to change the law.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
Two possibilities
We have two options. One is almost impossible and the other is difficult but doable.
The almost impossible choice is to amend the Constitution to include a portion of collective rights to limit the individual rights of refugees compared to the collective rights of citizens of Canada and Quebec. Good luck, we are prisoners of Trudeau Sr's ultra-liberal thinking. A thought that is seriously becoming current.
The difficult but doable decision is for governments to denounce and therefore withdraw from the Convention on the Status of Refugees.
This case is provided for in Article 44 of the Convention on the Status of Refugees. Since this Convention specifically establishes that the Governments of the Territories of the Federations are parties to the Treaty, it follows that Quebec may also denounce this Treaty.
Some traditionalists will cringe at the mention of this right of Member States, but it is entirely justifiable.
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Quebec needs to move
The Trudeau government will not terminate this contract for ideological reasons. Reasons that do not hold water given the political and economic contingencies we face.
That leaves the Legault government, which should tell Ottawa that within a year it will no longer apply the rights under its jurisdiction to refugees.
In theory, Quebec is not required to give reasons for such termination of its part of the Treaty – the Treaty does not require justification. However, given those who would try to sue the country, the Quebec government could easily invoke a case of force majeure.
Withdrawing from the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees would not solve all over-immigration problems, but it would be a step in the right direction while waiting for Quebec and Canada to become strong enough to accept refugees again.